Bumper crops expected

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Phil Hossack / Winnipeg Free Press A red-tailed hawk soars over a canola field being harvested near Notre Dame de Lourdes this week. Farmers say there have been difficulties in growing.

Statistics Canada says Prairie farmers are anticipating record canola production this year, as well as increases in wheat and barley.

But Manitoba canola growers say the very high prices and the largest acreage ever planted were necessary for farmers to salvage profits from the traditionally lucrative oilseed crop after having to deal with a host of challenging conditions.

"There have been a number of plagues visited upon canola growers this year of almost biblical proportions," said Ed Remple, a farmer near Starbuck and the president of the Manitoba Canola Growers Association.

He said intense heat, sporadic rain, disease and bugs have reduced canola yields by as much as 50 per cent in many regions of the province.

Still, Statistics Canada said in its latest crop estimate released Wednesday, Prairie farmers anticipate a record 15.2 million tonnes of canola -- surpassing the record of 14 million tonnes set in 2011.

Remple and Rick White of the Canadian Canola Growers agree it's going to be a huge crop, but say many farmers are disappointed with the yields.

"The jury is still out on how much yield that heat wave took off the canola crop in Western Canada," White said. "But in general, I think we'll find it took yield off we didn't anticipate losing. I think production will end up being below expectations."

That's not the case when it comes to wheat production on the Prairies, which is expected to reach 24.8 million tonnes in 2012, up 9.7 per cent from 22.6 million tonnes in 2011.

Barley production on the Prairies is anticipated to rise 23.8 per cent to nine million tonnes because of an expected record average yield of 65.1 bushels per acre.

"Overall, weather conditions in the West in 2012 have been closer to normal, following two years of excess-moisture conditions in parts of Manitoba and Saskatchewan," says the report.

There is talk among farmers and producer groups it could be a bumper crop. Add that to a crippling drought withering fields south of the border that is pushing up prices.

"From a historical point of view, that size of crop we would see maybe once in a decade or so," said Bruce Burnett, a Winnipeg-based weather and crop specialist for the Canadian Wheat Board.

The board, which recently branded itself CWB after losing its monopoly on the sale of western wheat and grain, says production of the six major grains and oilseeds could yield 51.6 million tonnes this year -- better than the five-year average by about four million tonnes.

"In the decade between 2001 and 2010 we had about 50 million tonnes only twice, so you can see... it's a pretty substantial production."

But Burnett is also cautious.

"You're always a bit reluctant to call it a bumper until you get the crop in the bin and we do the final counting on it, but generally speaking, you know prospects are good, and because of the drought in the U.S., prices are high."

Kevin Bender, president of the Western Canadian Wheat Growers Association, said he's about two to three weeks from starting the harvest on his central Alberta farm near Bentley.

Bender, his father and brother grow barley, canola and wheat on about 4,500 acres.

The wheat and barley look good, he said. The canola looks good, but it can surprise you "once you get into it."

Bender knows some people are talking about having a good yield this year, but he's cautious, too.

"Potential I guess is there for a bumper crop, but I'm not sure it's going to be quite as good as everyone had thought or hoped earlier on. There have been some disappointing yields come in from some of the early crops anyway," he said.

The Statistics Canada survey said Manitoba farmers anticipate strong production growth across the board compared to last year -- canola up 49.7 per cent, spring wheat up 44.7 per cent, soybeans up 41.75 per cent, oats up 57.4 per cent, feed corn up 38.9 per cent from the previous high in 2003, barley up 155 per cent compared to last year and the sunflower crop up 271.7 per cent.

Much of the growth is attributed to the fact that last year more than three million total acres of farmland were under water. This year, flooded farmland is much less of a problem although about 40,000 acres in the Assiniboine Valley could not be seeded due to flooding.

Expectations are a record 3.5 million acres of canola will be harvested in the province, with the previous record being 3.2 million acres in 2009.

Spring wheat acreage harvested will be up 23 per cent to 2.4 million acres. Manitoba farmers chose to seed more than 49 per cent more acres of soybeans this year and 500,000 acres of oats were planted this year compared to 85,000 last year.

Barley acreage planted is up 77.8 per cent, corn up 65.7 per cent and sunflower acreage up 46.6 per cent.

-- The Canadian Press / staff

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition August 23, 2012 B5