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Prime Minister Stephen Harper (TOM HANSON / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

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STEPHEN DION (SEAN KILPATRICK / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

The Free Press answers some of the biggest questions coming out of this week, and where we go from here.

Can Stephen Harper survive? 

IF the coalition had won the day, it's almost certain Harper would have left. And in the first few days of this predicament, the Conservatives were the ones looking shell-shocked and acting tense. But the momentum shifted in their favour thanks to the Governor General and public polls and Harper is back on top. For now.

A large number of Canadians feel Harper's decision to suspend Parliament was the right thing to do and the Strategic Council poll also suggests the Conservatives have the backing of 45 per cent of Canadians, almost eight per cent more than they got in the election.

But the same poll found 45 per cent of Canadians blame Harper for causing the parliamentary predicament and it also shows 47 per cent of Canadians don't think he can be trusted.

Queen's University politics professor Kathy Brock also said there is word trickling out from the Conservatives that this situation showed Harper's "Reform colours" and the more progressive conservative MPs in the caucus are not impressed.

"He has lost a bit of ground within the Conservative party," said Brock.

Add to that the fact no Canadian prime minister has ever survived a recession (they either resigned or were voted out of office) and Harper has a lot of olive branches to extend, something he is never very good at doing.

"He has to walk very carefully here," says Brock.

What has Harper's strategy done to Canadian unity?

THE opposition parties have charged Stephen Harper and the Conservatives did more damage to Canadian unity in the last week than anything else in recent history. McGill University politics professor says Harper's comments about separatists and Quebec voters mean the "story is not over" in Quebec.

The real impact may be seen Monday when Quebec voters go to the polls in a provincial election. Liberal Jean Charest was riding a somewhat comfortable lead just before the parliamentary predicament but a week of stirring the separatist pot may have shifted some support to his chief opponent, the Parti Québécois. The Quebec election was seen as somewhat of a sleeper, but separatist-leaning voters who might have stayed home could have been mobilized by the anti-Bloc rhetoric coming from the Conservative government.

Long-term, the impact on the Quebec sovereignty issue is less clear. Harper has a budget in January which could deliver something big for Quebec. And with the economy in the toilet, nobody expects any major moves in Quebec for separation in the immediate future.

What has his strategy done to his party in Quebec?

ANTONIA Maioni says if Harper burned his bridges to Quebec with arts and culture cuts during the election, he has "blown up the bridges" this week with his Quebec-bashing.

"They are not going to see him in the same way anymore," said Maioni.

The Strategic Council poll done this week showed Conservative support in La Belle Province was down to 18 per cent, a drop from 24 per cent in the last election. Some Conservatives have said the party had decided before this last week's events to write Quebec off in its quest for a majority government.

When once it was felt the only path to a majority was through Quebec, the Harper Conservatives only need 12 more seats to get their majority. They have room for growth in Newfoundland -- where they lost all of their seats thanks to Premier Danny Williams' Anything But Conservative campaign -- as well as in Toronto and Vancouver.

Can the coalition survive?

PROBABLY not.

Word leaking from the Liberal caucus room Thursday has been that there is a lot of talk about ditching the coalition. Many Liberals were wary in the first place and at least one senior Liberal is known to have stood up in caucus and said the Liberals needed to ditch the coalition, send negotiators over to the Conservatives and hammer out a deal.

But Michael Ignatieff -- the Toronto MP who is one of the front-runners to win the Liberal leadership race -- was said to be anti-coalition to begin with but indicated Thursday he likes the coalition's existence as a weapon of influence to keep the Harper government in check. Ignatieff -- who counts about 50 of the 77 Liberal MPs as supporters -- carries a lot of weight within the Liberal caucus.

And Bob Rae -- the other front-runner -- has emerged as the mouthpiece for the coalition.

So with those two behind it, and the NDP knowing the coalition is the only real chance it has of getting seats in the government benches, the coalition stands a chance to hold together until the House resumes Jan. 26.

But if Harper does as he promised, and actually reaches out to the Liberals and NDP for input, and then delivers a budget with enough of the things the coalition wants that they can't vote it down, the coalition will surely die off quickly after that.

What does this mean for Stéphane Dion?

IT means his Christmas gift is going to be a return to private life.

For about a week it seemed perhaps Dion would not go down in history as only the second Liberal leader never to become prime minister. But it's all over for him now.

Not only will he not make it to May, when he was going to step aside for the new Liberal leader after the leadership convention, he isn't expected to make it another week.

"When you take aim at the king and you don't take him out you've got problems," says Kathy Brock.

Brock said the support for Dion as the coalition leader was so weak it wasn't even clear he could have delivered the votes on Monday to bring the government down.

But the nail in Dion's coffin probably was the debacle of his televised address Wednesday night where the tape was an hour late, provided in the wrong format and of such poor quality it was compared to a Youtube video shot on a camera phone. One senior Liberal apparently said afterwards "tapegate" was so bad he was more embarrassed to be a Liberal than he had been at the height of the sponsorship scandal.

There is no mechanism to remove him forcefully. A number of Liberals have said there is a possibility to move up the leadership convention but that would be logistically difficult.

The best result would be for Dion to step aside on his own, facing a complete revolt from his caucus and the potential break-up of the coalition if he doesn't. That would clear the way for an interim leader -- likely John McCallum or Ralph Goodale -- until the leadership convention.

The Liberal caucus meets again next week when it's largely expected the question of Dion's leadership will be answered.

mia.rabson@freepress.mb.ca

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition December 6, 2008 A6