Latest News

Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION

Forecasters' prediction of a brutally cold winter couldn't have been more wrong

By: Chris Purdy

Posted: 02/1/2012 1:00 AM | Comments: 0 (including replies)

Who needs a jacket on Jan. 31? Not Jeremy Clark and Dennis Arevalo, who enjoy a friendly snowball fight in Brandon on a balmy Tuesday afternoon. (COLIN CORNEAU/BRANDON SUN)

Related Items

Articles
- Week-long walk on the mild side forecast

EDMONTON -- The chief climatologist for Environment Canada admits he has egg on his face.

Dave Phillips predicted last fall Western Canada would have a colder than normal winter, but it's been the exact opposite.

It's the second- or third-warmest winter on record for some of the Prairie provinces.

Weather records were smashed across Manitoba in early January, when temperatures in some communities reached the double digits.

It felt more like spring than the dead of winter in Winnipeg when it reached a record high of 6 C on Jan. 5.

"We sometimes don't get it right. It's not something that's perfect," said Phillips. "Maybe nature sneers at these forecasts and gives us the opposite."

But he's not alone: Most forecasters across Canada and the United States got it wrong.

The Weather Network suggested a roller-coaster winter with major storms for the West. AccuWeather also forecast parts of North America would be hit with the worst winter in 20 years.

Instead, temperatures are about seven degrees warmer than normal and there has been loads less snow. Winnipeg has recorded 44 centimetres of the white stuff so far this winter, compared to 117 cm at the same time last year.

In Alberta, the golf course in Picture Butte north of Lethbridge is opening today for the season -- a first in its 50-year history.

Golf pro Chris Dipasquale said nine holes -- complete with greens -- are ready and the full 18 holes will be open by the weekend. Dipasquale said the golf club doesn't usually open until late April, but abnormally dry and warm weather has changed that.

Phillips said he always gives the same advice: Never bet money on the weatherman.

Weather technology simply doesn't allow forecasters to make precise, long-term forecasts, he said.

This season, they relied on the presence of the cold Pacific Ocean current La Nina as a sign a nasty winter was coming.

They were also thwarted by an uncommonly high jet stream keeping the cold Arctic air up north, he said.

Phillips suspects most people are happy about the mistake. But he warns they shouldn't be pulling out their patio sets just yet.

There are still a couple months to go before spring, he said. It can still get colder, and up to 45 per cent of the season's snow usually falls after Feb. 1.

"I still think there's a lot of winter left in the air," he predicted.

Let's hope he's wrong again.

-- The Canadian Press, with staff file

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition February 1, 2012 C12

You can comment on most stories on winnipegfreepress.com. You can also agree or disagree with other comments. All you need to do is register and/or login and you can join the conversation and give your feedback.

The Winnipeg Free Press does not necessarily endorse any of the views posted. By submitting your comment, you agree to our Terms and Conditions. These terms were revised effective April 16, 2010; View the changes. New to commenting? Check out our Frequently Asked Questions.