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Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION

Vaccination clinics could soon close

Worst of outbreak almost over, experts decide

By: Jen Skerritt

Posted: 11/27/2009 1:00 AM | Comments: 0 (including replies)

‘I don’t know what period we’re at in the game, but the game is definitely not over’ -- Chief medical officer Dr. Joel Kettner (JOE.BRYKSA@FREEPRESS.MB.CA)

Inside Winnipeg's H1N1 war room, a round-table of flu experts decided Thursday it's nearly time to wind down the large-scale attack against influenza.

It's not the worst-case scenario pandemic planners braced for after the hard hit Manitoba suffered last spring, but that's good news to everyone at the city's flu command centre -- the small office hub on Hargrave Street where big decisions about vaccination clinics and regional flu plans have been made since the end of October.

Dr. Sande Harlos, Winnipeg Regional Health Authority officer of health, said she suspects the peak of the second wave of H1N1 has hit and that it's unlikely a flood of severe cases will surface in the coming weeks.

The number of people on ventilators with severe illness has slowly decreased, along with the high number of children with flu symptoms visiting Children's Hospital emergency, Harlos said. As of Thursday, there were four people in intensive care with H1N1, including two people on ventilators -- two fewer people than earlier this week and a big drop from the 11 people on ventilators a few weeks ago.

Health experts agree that H1N1 will continue to infect people, but that early signs indicate the worst may be over.

"We estimate we're at peak or possibly a little past peak and it's unlikely things are going to get worse," Harlos said.

"We're seeing a lot of cases, but fewer of the severe cases."

Four city flu clinics -- including St. Boniface, Point Douglas, Inkster and Transcona -- could close as early as next week, as city health officials plan to scale back staff at mass immunization clinics in the hopes of shutting them down in the coming weeks.

Milton Sussman, chief operating officer of community health services for the WRHA, said the plan is to transfer vaccinations over to doctor's offices, and continue community outreach to those at risk of severe complications from H1N1 using things like mobile vaccination teams.

"I suspect in a couple of days we can tell (clinic staff) more definitively to stand down," Sussman said.

The behind-the-scenes discussions in Winnipeg's flu command centre came the same day Manitoba Health officials announced 703 additional cases of H1N1 were reported between Nov. 16 and 23, bringing the cumulative total to 1,246.

Chief medical officer Dr. Joel Kettner said that's evidence the virus is still circulating across the province and that all Manitobans who haven't been vaccinated should get the shot to protect against H1N1.

"I don't know what period we're at in the game, but the game is definitely not over," Kettner said, referring to where the second wave of H1N1 is at.

Kettner said it's possible that H1N1 will continue to circulate all winter, noting flu patterns are difficult to predict.

Back at the flu command centre, Winnipeg officials will try to figure out their next step.

Harlos thinks the severity of the second wave wasn't as bad as the first because it hit around the same time vaccine became available and people were able to build up more immunity. Last spring, Harlos said it took an average of six days from the time when someone had symptoms of H1N1 to the time they received Tamiflu.

This time, Harlos said much more Tamiflu was administered to lessen symptoms and speed up recovery.

Harlos said pandemic plans can be ramped up again if the number of severe cases intensifies or a third wave surfaces.

She and other officials say it's important people who haven't been vaccinated don't procrastinate and get the shot as soon as possible, since even mild forms of H1N1 cause a nasty flu.

"We will expect to see ongoing transmission (of flu)," Harlos said.

jen.skerritt@freepress.mb.ca

Clinics' tally

THE Winnipeg Regional Health Authority has vaccinated 197,015 people, including more than 8,000 on Thursday.

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition November 27, 2009 A4

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