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Economy gets their vote

Business leaders vow to make it an election issue

By: Martin Cash

Posted: 08/30/2011 1:00 AM | Comments: 0 (including replies)

BORIS MINKEVICH / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS Enlarge Image

Dave Angus, president of the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce, says the economy needs to be a larger issue in this fall's provincial election.

When looking for someone to blame for why the economy did not become a larger issue in the last provincial election, members of Manitoba business organizations pointed to themselves.

Dave Angus, president of the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce, said the community is determined to not let the same thing happen during this fall's election.

Slow and steady -- the pros and cons of the Manitoba economy:

Manitoba has the lowest disposable income per capita, but was the only province where that income measure did not decline in 2009.
Manitoba has the lowest average weekly earnings, but over the past decade earnings have increased more than in Ontario and B.C.
Provincial out-migration is trending down, but Manitoba was the only province to have net out-migration every year over the past decade.
Manitoba's manufacturing employment is down 12 per cent over the past decade; nationally the decline is 22 per cent.
Manitoba eliminated the small business tax in 2011, but the threshold at which the corporate tax kicks in is the lowest.

As a first salvo, a study called The Manitoba Prosperity Report was released Monday that states in a fairly straightforward manner some of the key economic metrics that show the good and bad elements of the provincial economy.

It was funded by the Manitoba Employers Council, an umbrella organization representing most of the employers associations and large employers.

The fact it was the first time the group felt it necessary to produce such a report perhaps says something about their belief in the importance of making the economy a priority in the Oct. 4 election.

"It will not be just the MEC or the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce, but you'll see lots of business organizations active over the next month," Angus said. "The stakes are high."

But that's not to say there is a crisis mentality.

"It is certainly not a report that's meant to convey doom and gloom; I don't think it does convey that," said Bill Gardner, a lawyer at Pitblado and chairman of the MEC.

What it does do is lay out some of the metrics -- pro and the con -- that have become fairly well known about the province's modest economic growth patterns. Gardner said the hope is to get the next government to commit to "working towards maximizing everything Manitoba can be."

Since conservative political parties in Canada are generally considered to be more sympathetic to business interests, the knee-jerk reaction to the report would be that it's a shot at the NDP government.

But Angus said, "This is not the fault of any one government. It is historical in the province."

What he's referring to are trends such as:

Disposable income has increased by 20 per cent over the past 10 years, but it's increased more in Ontario and the other western provinces (the report only compares the five western-most provinces);
Manitoba and Ontario are the only provinces out of the five with a payroll tax;
The increase in the labour force has not been as great as in other provinces;
Income taxes have come down, but are still higher than our neighbours;
Interprovincial out-migration is chronic.

Wilf Falk, head of the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics, does not quibble the report. But he said context is important in analyzing statistics.

For instance, the MEC report notes correctly that over that last decade, weekly earnings in Manitoba have increased at a greater rate than they have in Ontario or B.C. But at $785, Manitoban's average weekly earnings are still the lowest among Ontario and all of the western provinces.

Falk said that has at least something to do with the industrial structure of each province.

"Take the auto sector out of the Ontario numbers and oil and gas out of Alberta and Saskatchewan and see what happens to the wage levels there," Falk said. "The context is important."

Angus and the other MEC groups understand those structural realities. Angus said the point is to try to drill down a little more diligently to extract greater returns out of the economic potential that exists in the province.

Angus said something that is recently becoming a popular metric of income growth is called job churning. That is determined by the number of business start-ups minus business bankruptcies. A high level of both is considered healthy.

But in Manitoba, the number of businesses per 1,000 people has not changed in 10 years.

martin.cash@freepress.mb.ca

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition August 30, 2011 0

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