Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION

Forecast for Man. more bullish

Expected growth rate increases

ONE of the country's leading economic forecasters has bumped up its forecast for how well the Manitoba economy will perform over the next two years.

In its Spring 2012 Provincial Outlook Report issued Wednesday, the Conference Board of Canada predicts the Manitoba economy will grow by 2.9 per cent this year and by 2.7 per cent in 2013.

In its last quarterly forecast in February, the Ottawa-based think-tank was predicting real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.7 per cent this year and 2.6 per cent in 2013.

The board also expects Manitoba will tie Saskatchewan for the second-best economic growth in the country this year.

It said the province's goods sector is poised for rapid growth this year, thanks largely to a stellar performance by its primary industries.

Agriculture is also expected to rebound from last year's spring flooding and summer drought, with a robust 10 per cent growth in output this year.

"The outlook for mining is also rosy," it said. "Meanwhile, the province's diverse manufacturing base is expected to stay on track, growing by 2.1 per cent this year and 3.3 per cent in 2013."

New Statistics Canada numbers Wednesday show Manitoba's manufacturing sector hit the pause button in March.

The agency said manufacturers shipped out $1.29 billion worth of goods during the month, essentially unchanged from the previous month.

On a year-over-year comparison, the sector fared a little better, with sales up 3.5 per cent from a year earlier.

Manitoba was one of only three provinces that didn't see their sales increase from February to March.

Nationally, the Conference Board said resource-rich Western Canada will be going from strength to greater strength over the next two years, with Alberta leading the economic charge with 3.8 per cent growth this year and 3.7 per cent in 2013.

The four western provinces will claim the top four growth rates in 2012 and 2013, it said, all bettering or equalling the national average for both years of 2.3 per cent and 2.8 per cent.

The four provinces will also enjoy the lowest levels of unemployment both years, it adds.

The think-tank said it expects Quebec and the Atlantic provinces to underperform in both years, while Ontario will about match the national growth rate

murray.mcneill@freepress.mb.ca

-- with files from The Canadian Press

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition May 17, 2012 B9

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