Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION

Housing-starts forecast cut

CMHC cites small growth in population, jobs in province

  • Print
The new-homes portion of the housing market is more able to respond to slowdowns, as the projects are smaller.

BORIS MINKEVICH / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS FILES Enlarge Image

The new-homes portion of the housing market is more able to respond to slowdowns, as the projects are smaller. Photo Store

Canada's national housing agency has scaled back its housing-starts forecast for Manitoba for 2014 after weaker-than-expected population and job growth this year.

In its latest housing-market forecast released Wednesday, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) predicts total starts will decline by 14 per cent to 6,400 units from an unusually strong 7,465 in 2013.

The corporation has also scaled back its 2014 expectations for the province's resale-homes market, although not by much. It's now forecasting 13,900 MLS sales for this year, instead of the 14,000 it was calling for at the start of the year. However, 13,900 would still be a 1.2 per cent improvement from 2013's total of 13,735.

Dianne Himbeault, CMHC's senior market analyst in Winnipeg, said Manitoba's population and job growth haven't been as strong as anticipated this year, and that has led to a weaker-than-expected demand for both new and resale homes.

She said the corporation expects the impact to be concentrated on the single-detached side of the new-homes market because builders there are able to react more quickly to changes in market conditions than their counterparts on the multi-family side, where the projects tend to be much bigger.

"They (projects) are years in the making and they (the builders) are already doing their pre-sales and they've already invested so much time and money... that the tendency is to keep rolling."

For 2015, CMHC predicts housing starts will rebound to 6,500 units, and MLS sales will climb to 12,400 units.

While CMHC predicts the demand for resale homes will also be weaker than expected this year, it said other factors will partially offset that.

"Equity gains from the past few years will prompt some owners to upgrade their homes," it said, "while elevated active listings will offer more selection to prospective buyers." The corporation said this year's modest growth in MLS sales is expected to be followed by a 1.4 per cent increase to 14,100 unit sales in 2015.

In terms of price increases, CMHC predicts the average MLS sales price will climb by 2.1 per cent this year to $266,200 from $260,849 in 2013. And next year it's expected to rise by a further 2.9 per cent to $273,800.

For the Winnipeg Census Metropolitan area, CMHC said it expects to see modest increases in MLS sales and selling prices in 2014 and 2015, and moderate declines in housing starts.

Nationally, CMHC said Canada's housing market may start showing some signs of slowing down over the next two years as new construction begins to ease.

It is forecasting housing starts in Canada will range between 179,600 and 189,900 units in 2014 on an annual basis, and drop to a range of between 163,000 and 203,200 units in 2015.

"Recent trends have shown an increase in housing starts, which is broadly supported by demographic fundamentals," said Bob Dugan, chief economist at CMHC.

"However, our latest forecast calls for starts to edge lower as builders are expected to reduce inventories instead of focusing on new construction."

MLS sales are expected to range between 450,800 and 482,700 units in 2014, with an average price of between $394,700 and $405,700. In 2015, MLS sales are expected to range from 455,800 to 502,900 units, with and average price of $396,500 to $416,900.

 

-- with files from the Canadian Press

Forecast by the numbers

Highlights from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's third-quarter housing-market forecast for Manitoba (percentage change in brackets).

NEW-HOMES MARKET

Area 2013 starts 2014 starts 2015 starts
Manitoba 7,465 6,400 (-14) 6,500 (1.6)
Winnipeg CMA 4,705 4,500 (-4.4) 4,350 (-3.3)

RESALE-HOMES MARKET

Area 2013 MLS* sales 2014 MLS sales 2015 MLS sales
Manitoba 13,735 13,900 (1.2) 14,100 (1.4)
Winnipeg CMA 12,008 12,250 (1.3) 12,400 (1.2)

 

AVERAGE MLS SELLING PRICE

Area 2013 2014 2015
Manitoba $260,849 $266,200 (2.1) $273,800 (2.9)
Winnipeg CMA $268,382 $277,000 (3.2) $285,000 (2.9)

 

*Multiple Listing Service

-- source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition August 14, 2014 B6

History

Updated on Thursday, August 14, 2014 at 7:06 AM CDT: Replaces photo

7:14 AM: Adds table

Fact Check

Fact Check

Have you found an error, or know of something we’ve missed in one of our stories?
Please use the form below and let us know.

* Required
  • Please post the headline of the story or the title of the video with the error.

  • Please post exactly what was wrong with the story.

  • Please indicate your source for the correct information.

  • Yes

    No

  • This will only be used to contact you if we have a question about your submission, it will not be used to identify you or be published.

  • Cancel

Having problems with the form?

Contact Us Directly
  • Print

You can comment on most stories on winnipegfreepress.com. You can also agree or disagree with other comments. All you need to do is be a Winnipeg Free Press print or e-edition subscriber to join the conversation and give your feedback.

You can comment on most stories on winnipegfreepress.com. You can also agree or disagree with other comments. All you need to do is be a Winnipeg Free Press print or e-edition subscriber to join the conversation and give your feedback.

Have Your Say

New to commenting? Check out our Frequently Asked Questions.

Have Your Say

Comments are open to Winnipeg Free Press print or e-edition subscribers only. why?

Have Your Say

Comments are open to Winnipeg Free Press Subscribers only. why?

The Winnipeg Free Press does not necessarily endorse any of the views posted. By submitting your comment, you agree to our Terms and Conditions. These terms were revised effective April 16, 2010.

letters

Make text: Larger | Smaller

LATEST VIDEO

Sneak peek: The galleries of CMHR

View more like this

Photo Store Gallery

  • A baby Red Panda in her area at the Zoo. International Red Panda Day is Saturday September 15th and the Assiniboine Park Zoo will be celebrating in a big way! The Zoo is home to three red pandas - Rufus, Rouge and their cub who was born on June 30 of this year. The female cub has yet to be named and the Assiniboine Park Zoo is asking the community to help. September 14, 2012  BORIS MINKEVICH / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS
  • May 22, 2012 - 120522  - Westminster United Church photographed Tuesday May 22, 2012 .  John Woods / Winnipeg Free Press

View More Gallery Photos

Poll

Do you plan on attending any of the CMHR opening weekend events? (select all that apply)

View Results

View Related Story

Ads by Google