Manitobans have happy thoughts

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BORIS.MINKEVICH@FREEPRESS.mb.ca / file photo Most people surveyed cited a diverse and growing economy as the reason they feel positive about their financial future.

But it did not grow by very much -- a modest 0.2 per cent.

However, any economic growth number that is not negative is so much better than the alternative in the minds of most consumers.

And so, while BMO economist Douglas Porter calls it "a classic glass-half-full/half-empty report," Manitoba consumers are seriously committed to feeling happy thoughts about the economy.

In the latest Probe Research/Jory Capital survey done exclusively for the Free Press, many more Manitobans said they are quite optimistic about the future than was the case a year ago.

For the first time this year, the quarterly survey also recorded that more people believe their family is financially better off now than they were a year ago.

Over the course of every poll this year, fewer and fewer Manitobans were concerned about loosing their jobs.

Scott MacKay, president of Probe Research said the trend lines are unmistakable.

"It is almost like the recession is over and people kind of recognize that," MacKay said. "The dial is moving in the right direction."

In its latest results, PRA Inc., another Winnipeg research company that surveys consumer confidence, has recorded the largest annual upward gain in its Manitoba index since 2000.

Both those surveys are Manitoba-specific so there is no comparison to other jurisdictions, but the point is, Manitoba consumers are feeling much better about things generally.

The Probe survey of 1,000 Manitobans (which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent, 95 per cent of the time) was done during the last week of November and the first week of December.

That was before news broke that Tembec is looking to sell its Pine Falls paper operation in which close to 300 workers have been locked out since September.

It was also before news broke that Convergys would be reducing its Winnipeg workforce by 500 and machinists at Aveos Fleet Performance said the company is planning to lay off about 250 in the spring.

Those may be isolated situations and not enough to shake the level of confidence that has been growing over the course of the year.

After all, when Probe asked people why they are optimistic about the economic future of their community (an optimism that 80 per cent of respondents expressed), the largest reason given was the diverse and growing economy.

Manitoba is more than pulp and paper, call centres and airframe maintenance.

HudBay Minerals is gearing up to spend about a half billion to start a major new mine near Snow Lake; Standard Aero will be looking to hire 100 people early in the new year in advance of a multi-year contract to work on the engines on WestJet's fleet of 737s; and after a few snags, the Winnipeg bus business is heading in a more positive direction.

Meanwhile, Manitobans' family finances are in undeniably better shape than they have been all year, which is probably the case for anyone in North America that owns any stake in the equities markets -- which are up about 50 per cent since the stock market bottomed out in March.

Not only that, but the Manitoba real estate market remained very strong throughout the year even as the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market devastated real estate markets throughout the U.S.

"Everybody has most of their net worth in their house," said Patrick Cooney, president of Jory Capital.

"It is reasonable to think that is what's supporting it (Manitoban's positive view of the future and their current state of financial well-being)."

But Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of Canada, has recently warned the historic low interest rates will not last forever.

And Cooney, who has a reputation for concentrating on the troubling bits in the markets, calls the current strength in the stock market a "bear market rally." He is not the only one to point out that trading levels are much lower than they were in the previous bull market.

While the national economic news of the day was technically positive, it was nothing to write home about.

BMO's Porter said, "The half-full part is that the economy has finally managed to churn out back-to-back growth months for the first time since late 2007, and is emerging from recession. The half-empty part is that the recovery remains lacklustre."

That may be true, but Manitobans clearly believe that there is enough of a base to build on here that will bode well for the future.

martin.cash@freepress.mb.ca

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition December 24, 2009 B4