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Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION
Manitoba's economic forecast promising
MANITOBA'S economy is still on track to post the second-strongest growth in the country this year despite the ongoing uncertainty in other parts of the world, according to the Conference Board of Canada.
In its Summer Provincial Outlook released Friday, the Ottawa-based think-tank said it expects the Manitoba economy to grow by 2.9 per cent this year despite weakening growth in emerging markets, Europe's economic woes, and sluggish growth in its main export market -- the United States.
The only province it expects will do better is Alberta, with growth of 3.8 per cent. It predicts Canada will see real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 2.1 per cent.
The board's latest 2012 forecast is unchanged from May. However, it has downgraded its 2013 forecast for Manitoba to 2.4 per cent from 2.6 per cent.
Marie Christine Bernard, associate director of the board's report, said it now appears the Canadian and U.S. economies aren't going to do as well next year as initially expected.
In the spring, they were forecasting GDP growth of 2.7 per cent for Canada and three per cent for the United States in 2013. Now it looks like it will be closer to 2.4 per cent and 2.7 per cent respectively. That slower growth rate is going to have a trickle-down effect on all of the provinces, she added.
"Manufacturing (output) and exports won't be as strong as was first expected," said Bernard.
The board still expects manufacturing to be one of this year's better-performing sectors in Manitoba along with mining, construction and agriculture.
Improved weather conditions have paved the way for a 20-per-cent rebound in agricultural output this year, after three consecutive years of poor growing conditions and subpar crops.
If the weather co-operates, the ag sector should see good growth next year, Bernard said, but it will be more like 4.1 per cent.
Other sectors expected to do well next year are aerospace (3.3 per cent growth), retail trade (4.2 per cent) and mining.
murray.mcneill@freepress.mb.ca
Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition July 28, 2012 B9
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