Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION

New lag in China's growth, but analysts expect spurt

BEIJING -- China's economic growth slowed to a new three-year low, damping hopes it can make up for U.S. and European weakness, but analysts said a rebound might be in sight.

The world's second-largest economy grew by 7.6 per cent in the three months ending in June over a year earlier, down from the previous quarter's 8.1 per cent, data showed Friday. That was the lowest since the first quarter of 2009 during the depths of the global financial crisis.

China's slowdown may have global repercussions, especially when the United States and Europe are struggling. Lower Chinese demand could send shock waves through Asian economies that supply industrial components to its vast manufacturing industry and exporters of oil, iron ore and other commodities such as Australia, Brazil and African nations.

Other indicators, though, including strong June bank lending, which is closely tied to business activity, suggest the low point of the decline might be past, analysts said.

"The Chinese economy has already bottomed out in the first two quarters," said Xiao Li, an economist at the Industrial Bank in Shanghai.

"It is not certain whether or not there will be a strong upward rebound. But at least the economic growth rate will stop coming down," Xiao said.

The slump raises the threat of job losses and political tension. That comes at a politically difficult time for the ruling Communist party, which is trying to enforce calm ahead of a planned handover of power to younger leaders.

China's export growth has fallen steadily and consumer spending has weakened despite stimulus measures that include two interest rate cuts since the start of June.

-- The Associated Press

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition July 14, 2012 B17

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