Business

Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION

StatsCan retelling economic history

Major revision to 30 years of data

By: Julian Beltrame

Posted: 10/1/2012 1:00 AM | Comments: 0

OTTAWA -- Statistics Canada is about to retell the country's economic history for the past 30 years in a new move that will also provide more insight into murky economic concepts.

Starting this morning, the federal data agency will issue a comprehensive revision to economic data of the past 30 years, introducing new measures and changing the definition of others.

The exercise -- two years in the making and designed to comply with revised international standards of economic measurements set out in 2008 -- will put Canada in the forefront of nations, along with Australia, in adopting the new way of measuring economic performance.

Others have pledged to follow -- the United States in 2013 and Europe in 2014.

It's a big deal, say economists, but it won't change the way Canadians feel about their economic place at present, or in the past.

Some gross domestic product numbers will likely move marginally up, in part because research and development will be capitalized and some services will be added to the export tally.

But in broad terms, Statistics Canada is not rewriting the past -- the new data will still dutifully record the slumps of the early 1980s and 1990s, the growth spurts that followed, and the great recession of 2008-09 and tepid recovery since.

"There's no real change in the economic history of Canada," says Jim Tebrake, Statistics Canada's director of the income and expenditure accounts division.

"There are changes from quarter to quarter, but nothing of significance. The business cycle is still the business cycle."

The value of the exercise, says Paul Jacobson, a Toronto-based consulting economist who has followed the process closely, is to give economic policy-makers and analysts a more precise picture of the ebb and flow of economic movements.

But it will take some getting used to. CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld has compared it to the transition from Fahrenheit to Celsius.

The comparison is somewhat apt because one of the benefits will be that countries, once they've followed suit, will more easily be able to stack their economies and component parts against each other.

But even economists will need some time to adjust, Jacobson says, adding that he has arranged for a four-hour seminar on the subject later in the month.

"I've been warning people for months this is going to be a biggie, but not everybody's been paying attention." he says. "Every single identifier people are using is changing, all the matrices change."

He believes the exercise will be worth it. "It's going to make things clearer about what the devil is going on."

The new standards will be a bonanza for "data wonks," Tebrake agrees. That's because they will have so many more data points to follow.

For instance, total exports are currently broken down into seven groupings, now it will be 35. For personal expenditures, StatsCan will issue 100 sub-groupings for analysts to ponder, instead of the previous 38.

The business sector will be split between financial and non-financial corporations, and household income will become more precise after jettisoning tribal government activity, non-profit institutions and other sectors that really had little relevance to households. Now they will have their own category.

"It's a much purer and clear measure," Tebrake explains.

"I think at the end of the day it's a more relevant product. Anyone who does forecasts has much better data at their disposal."

The changes include redefinitions of categories and new terminology. Terms such as corporate profits, labour income and personal expenditures will be no more.

-- The Canadian Press

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition October 1, 2012 B8

Fact Check

Have you found an error, or know of something we’ve missed in one of our stories? Please use the form below and let us know.

* Required

In which story did you find the error? *
Please post the headline of the story or the title of the video with the error.
What was the error? *
Please post exactly what was wrong with the story.
What should we have written?
Please indicate your source for the correct information.
Who else should we interview to improve this story?
Please include any contact information you may have.
Can we contact you in the future for advice on stories about this topic?
Yes

No
First Name: *
Last Name: *
E–mail Address: *
This will only be used to contact you if we have a question about your submission, it will not be used to identify you or be published.
Phone: *
This will only be used to contact you if we have a question about your submission, it will not be used to identify you or be published.
Colour:
Are you blue? If you can see this, leave it blank and get some CSS support.
Enter the words that you see: * This is to prevent our forms from being filled out automatically.
You have failed to correctly identify the words in the box above. Please try again.

More Business

Undock

You can comment on most stories on winnipegfreepress.com. You can also agree or disagree with other comments. All you need to do is register and/or login and you can join the conversation and give your feedback.

Have Your Say

New to commenting? Check out our Frequently Asked Questions.

The Winnipeg Free Press does not necessarily endorse any of the views posted. By submitting your comment, you agree to our Terms and Conditions. These terms were revised effective April 16, 2010.