Minorities visibly expanding

TREVOR HAGAN / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS Enlarge Image

Bao Nguyen, with his five-month-old daughter, Laura, left Vietnam for Winnipeg in 2008 in search of new opportunities.

OTTAWA -- More than one in every four people in Winnipeg will be a visible minority in just over two decades, Statistics Canada projected Tuesday.

The city's visible-minority numbers will grow from 15 per cent of the population now to 27 per cent in 2031, the agency says.

In a new report, it expects the number of visible minorities in the country to more than double by 2031.

The 2006 census showed there were 5.3 million visible-minority people in Canada, about 16 per cent of the population. By 2031, an estimated 31 per cent of Canadian residents -- 14.4 million people -- will be visible minorities.

The growth will be bolstered by immigration, a slightly higher fertility rate among visible minorities and a younger average age than non-visible minorities in Canada.

Bao Nguyen, 33, left Vietnam for Winnipeg in August 2008. His English is limited, so finding a new job in the chemical engineering field has been difficult, but he understands there will be a few bumps along the way.

"Trying to build a new life is hard, but the opportunity is here," he said, holding his five-month-old daughter Laura.

Most immigrants arrive in Canada to carve out a better life, not for themselves, but for their children.

Eliza Cabiling, originally from the Philippines, feels the move to Winnipeg four years ago is just the first step in establishing a better future for her three-year-old daughter Alyssa.

"We came here for a better life for her," Cabiling said.

Statistics Canada defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour."

Continuing the long trend of the biggest cities attracting the most visible minorities, Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal will account for more than seven in 10 visible-minority people in Canada by 2031, and in the first two cities, visible minorities will make up more than half the population.

Canadians will have to start thinking about races in a different way, not just visible minorities vis à vis the Caucasian population, a Queen's University sociology professor said.

"The idea of a visible minority is going to have to shift or it's going to start getting more and more ridiculous to talk about a minority of people who in fact are the majority," Richard Day said.

But Day doesn't expect that by 2031 the fundamental demographic change in Canada's complexion will be reflected in the workplace or in government.

"Probably in terms of powers, in terms of who's in charge, I think that might not change so much," he said.

Statistics Canada analyst Eric Caron Malenfant said although the biggest cities will have the lion's share of Canada's visible minorities, every metropolitan area will see significant growth in the visible-minority population.

Winnipeg, the eighth-largest city in Canada by population, will be seventh among Canada's cities when it comes to proportion of visible minorities.

By nationality, South Asians and Chinese will make up more than half the visible minorities in Canada (28 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively). Although smaller overall, the black and Filipino populations, third- and fourth-largest in Canada, will double in size, and Arabs and West Asians will quadruple.

The report also says the number of foreign-born residents in Canada will grow four times faster than the rest of the population.

The changing demographics will affect religion, with the number of non-Christians growing from eight per cent in 2006 to 14 per cent in 2031, and the number of Christians shrinking from 75 per cent to 65 per cent. The number without a religious affiliation will grow from 17 per cent to 21 per cent.

In Winnipeg in 2006, the year of the last census, there were 102,940 visible- minority people, accounting for more than 95 per cent of Manitoba's visible- minority population. The largest single community was Filipino at 36,935 people, more than one-third the total.

-- with files from The Canadian Press, Adam Wazny

mia.rabson@freepress.mb.ca

Growing stronger

Projection of percentage of visible-minority population by 2031. (Figures for 2006 in brackets):

Canada 31 (16)

Toronto 63 (43)

Vancouver 59 (42)

Calgary 38 (22)

Ottawa 36 (19)

Montreal 31 (16)

Edmonton 29 (17)

Winnipeg 27 (15)

Hamilton 25 (12)

London 22 (11)

Saskatoon 13 (6)

Regina 12 (7)

Halifax 12 (7)

St. John's 5 (2)

Quebec City 5 (2)

Total population of Manitoba, 2006: 1,133,515

Total population of Winnipeg, 2006: 686,040

Manitoba visible-minority population, 2006:

Total 109,095

Chinese 13,705

South Asian 16,565

Black 15,655

Filipino 37,790

Latin American 6,275

Southeast Asian 5,670

Arab 2,325

West Asian 1,960

Korean 2,190

Japanese 2,010

Multiple minorities: 3,265

All other minorities: 1,685

Winnipeg visible-minority population, 2006:

Total 102,940

Chinese 12,810

South Asian 15,295

Black 14,475

Filipino 36,935

Latin American 5,475

Southeast Asian 5,340

Arab 2,125

West Asian 1,895

Korean 2,075

Japanese 1,835

Multiple minorities 3,085

All other minorities 1,595

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition March 10, 2010 A3