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Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION

Vacation plans

Mayor Sam Katz needs to put together election team over summer

By: Bartley Kives

25/07/2009 1:00 AM | Comments: 0

Up until last fall, when Stéphane Dion had his brief, bizarre shot at becoming prime minister, few Canadians had the occasion to use the verb prorogue in a sentence.

But the Latin-derived term isn't as arcane as you might think. Every summer, city council undergoes a prorogation of its own -- a six-week period when the legislative machinery at city hall is suspended, allowing all 16 members of council to do something else.

Some councillors work on their golf games. Others head to the lake. Almost all of them take the opportunity to catch up on complaints about potholes and other ward responsibilities.

Mayor Sam Katz will probably take a week or two to hang out with his girlfriend and kids. He'll also choose a new chief of staff to replace the freshly departed Sherwood Armbruster.

But Katz must also carve out some time this summer to assemble a team to run his 2010 election campaign, which will be well underway by this time next year.

You're probably wondering why Sam Katz needs to worry about his re-election chances, given that the last incumbent Winnipeg mayor to lose an election was George Sharpe in 1956.

And just last month, a Probe Research poll placed Katz's public approval rating at 74 per cent, which suggests the vast majority of Winnipeggers have no problem whatsoever with the way the Goldeyes owner has been doing his job since 2004.

Unfortunately for Katz, the vast majority of Winnipeggers do not vote in civic elections. In the 2006 general election, only 38.2 per cent of the city's eligible voters bothered to come out and cast their votes.

This statistic has left-of-centre organizations salivating, especially given the results of the March 2009 River Heights-Fort Garry byelection, which saw a well-organized Liberal/NDP/labour coalition help John Orlikow trounce nominal Tory Geoff Currier in what should have been a very close race.

On paper, Orlikow and Currier were evenly matched. Both enjoyed some form of public profile, worked hard on the pavement and hugged the ideological middle during their campaigns.

But when the results started pouring in on St. Patrick's Day, Orlikow leapt way out ahead and never looked back. Council byelections always suffer from low voter turnout, and the political machine on the ground -- motivated volunteers convincing ordinary people to get out and vote, based on a list of likely supporters compiled throughout the race -- made a huge difference in River Heights-Fort Garry.

Mayor Sam Katz is vulnerable to a similar machine, if a credible challenger emerges who can marshall the combined resources of provincial New Democrats, federal Liberals and various unions on a larger scale. A centre-right coalition of Liberals and Tories could also present a formidable challenge.

That's because Katz does not seem to enjoy tremendous grassroots support, in spite of his popularity. In 2006, when he ran for re-election against three weak opponents, employees from his office on unpaid leave -- not ordinary people -- comprised much of his volunteer contingent.

A lack of strong grassroots support may be borne out by the recent Probe poll, which suggested only 16 per cent of Winnipeg adults strongly approve of Katz's performance, compared to 58 per cent who somewhat approved. If the numbers mean anything, the mayor's support is widespread but soft.

In an interview earlier this month, Katz acknowledged the implication of the River Heights byelection. But he also said no political machine could replicate that success on a city-wide scale.

A centre-left coalition could target two or three wards, the mayor said, but wouldn't be able to enlist enough volunteers to identify supporters and get out the vote in all 15 sprawling wards. He also didn't believe anyone from the centre-right could do better.

"I have something better (than a political machine)," he said. "I have the public at large."

He may very well be correct. But the emergence of a credible opponent could change this situation in a hurry.

Ever since U.S. President Barack Obama proved it's possible to use social media and viral marketing to mobilize volunteers on a truly massive scale, political organizers on both sides of the border have been scrambling to replicate his methodology.

A motivated political centrist with only a fraction of Obama's cash and charisma could easily cause trouble for Katz next year. But this person would have to get into the mayoral ring by September, when the existing mayor will have a new chief of staff -- and unless he's foolish, an election team in waiting.

bartley.kives@freepress.mb.ca

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition July 25, 2009 F3

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