DURING a debate on agricultural subsidies recently, a United States congressman warned his colleagues not to fiddle with them because in Australia, where they were fiddled with, a box of corn flakes now costs US $12.
As an enterprising blogger discovered, the congressman was what is charitably called "mistaken" -- Australian corn flakes sell for a mere US $3.41 a box, cheaper by eight cents even than in the congressman's home state, but that doesn't mean that the popular cereal won't hit the $12 mark soon.
If it does -- when it does seems more likely -- it won't be because of anything as insidious as agricultural subsidies. It will be simply another price tag on the war against global warming.
The international effort to substitute fossil fuels, such as gasoline, with biofuels, such as ethanol, is being accompanied by a steady rise in the price of food as crops are diverted from the kitchen table into the gas tanks of automobiles. It is estimated that within five years almost one-third of the North American corn harvest will be used to produce ethanol rather than food. The prices for crops such as corn, wheat and rice are at 10-year highs and as an article on the page opposite on Sunday pointed out, this trend is not likely to reverse any time soon.
In the international effort to reduce greenhouse gases, the prices of food and oil have developed a curious correspondence. One of the consequences of this already is being seen on Canadians' dinner plates as the price of staples rises. Another is being felt in the nation's farmyards as the price of feed for livestock rises. A consequence that is less obvious, but which internationally may ultimately be the gravest, is being felt in the underdeveloped and developing nations as biofuel frenzy exacerbates world poverty and threatens food security,
The ethanol it takes to fill up a 25-gallon tank on one of those increasingly popular pickup trucks requires about 450 pounds of corn to produce -- enough to feed one person for a year. The arithmetic is simple and the impact on the world's food supply obvious -- the most industrious farmers cannot increase production fast enough to meet the demand.
Ethanol is an example of how nothing exists in isolation, of how every decision, no matter how well intentioned, has consequences. It does result in less greenhouse gas being emitted by an automobile than gasoline, but it also results in the emission of more ozone (one of the deadliest components of smog) than gasoline. The biofuel we use to drive to the supermarket can't be used as food aid to Africa. The spike in the price of corn used to produce ethanol will mean higher prices for chicken, turkey, pork, milk and eggs and, as wheat and rice and other food crops are substituted for the corn that goes into gas tanks, the price of other foods as well -- perhaps, even, resulting in a $12 box of corn flakes.
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