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Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION

Math as medicine

U of M professor uses numbers to predict disease patterns, control outbreaks

By: Shamona Harnett / Healthy Living

19/10/2009 1:00 AM | Comments: 0

Remnants of red and green marker shadow the whiteboard in the boardroom next to Abba Gumel's office.They are leftovers from the formulas and equations he scribbled during a recent H1N1 brainstorming session. "You should have seen it," says the University of Manitoba mathematics professor, noting that the board was covered with equations and the room was filled with provincial public health officials looking for help from Gumel and his colleagues.

The experts were trying to come up with a mathematical model that would help them deal with the next wave of H1N1 expected to hit the province.

Gumel was a little boy in Nigeria when he first fell hard for the numbers and geometric shapes his uncle drew on a classroom chalkboard.

The then-three year old--who loved to go to work with his uncle, a school principal and teacher--was mesmerized by what he saw. "I still can capture that," recalls Gumel, who admits that it's unusual for most people to have such warm, fond memories of mathematics. "He would take me to school on his shoulders and put me in the back of his classroom and do his arithmetic."

Fast-forward four decades; numbers, equations and figures still bring an unusual joy to Gumel, 43, who was born is Nigeria and educated there as well as in England.

His joy stems from how he turns math into medicine, of sorts.

Like a physician uses drugs to help the sick, Gumel uses math -- the sort of numbers he first became acquainted with in his uncle's classroom -- to help public health officials map out how infectious diseases such as HIV and H1N1 will strike populations.

He also uses his equations to determine how governments can eradicate such deadly infections. He's currently working with Nigeria on a mathematical model he says will eventually wipe out HIV in that resource-limited West African country. Earlier this year, he won the Dr. L.E. Nicolle Award for a scientific article that panned Canada's Avian Flu preparedness. That article appeared in the March 2008 issue of the Canadian Journal of Infectious Diseases and Medical Microbiology.

In the next week or two Gumel and provincial health officials will more than likely come up with a mathematical strategy for controlling H1N1 in Manitoba, he says.

While most of the public is not aware that math is actually used to help curb the spread of disease, Gumel says the concept makes good sense.

He and his math colleagues use the figures provided by doctors and statisticians -- such as the number of people susceptible to an infection, the number of people infected and the number of people hospitalized -- to build an equation.

What he comes up with are numerical projections to help officials prepare for an outbreak and curb it.

"The concern that (officials) have right now is ICU demand," says Gumel, noting that ICU ventilators are expensive and current resources are limited. "(I can tell them) how many people will be infected, how many people will need hospitalization, how many people will die. That kind of thing."

Gumel says his work is more than just about numbers; it's inherently connected to real-life people.

The father of three, who grew up in a middle-class family, has seen the effects of disease. Most recently, it was during a tour of an African hospital where he stood near an AIDS patient on the verge of death.

"I've never seen a human being like that in my life -- basically no flesh, just bones," says Gumel, his usually quick speech slowing. "Up until now, I see that image of that person in my head.

"It's real. It's not just me sitting down in this office and just trying to do something. I can see the connection. I can see... the potential impact my kind of work could have on the lives of millions of people. This is amazing." It's this absolute passion for math that makes Gumel different from others in field, says Prof. Guenter Krause, the University of Manitoba's head of mathematics.

"A lot of mathematicians have this reputation -- and often it's justified -- for sitting in their office, in their ivory tower and only working on problems that nobody else other than mathematicians can understand," says Krause. "He does something positive to make this world a better world.

"I would call him a humanitarian. He applies his knowledge to improve the human condition."

Gumel admits that mathematical models aren't always accurate in predicting the effects of disease. But most are, he says -- particularly the SARS model he helped develop during the 2003 outbreak. The model advised health officials that they did not need a SARS vaccine, just quarantine measures. "We said that right from the beginning," says Gumel, who has lived in Winnipeg since 1999 .

Mathematical models aren't about absolute numbers, he says. Rather, they are qualitative, identifying definitive trends.

"Math is a beautiful language. That's the way I define mathematics -- it's a language to me. It's a language of precision. It's at the foundation of all the sciences. Either X equals Y or X is not equal to Y. There is no ambiguity. It's clear," he says.

"So to be part of that, to be able to use that to help humanity -- for me, there's just nothing greater."

On Wednesday Oct. 21, Prof. Abba Gumel will speak to the public about how he uses math to control disease. The seminar will take place at 7 p.m. at the U of M in room 290 of the education building. Admission is free. For more information, call 474-9020.

Have an interesting story idea you'd like Shamona to write about? Contact her at shamona.harnett@freepress.mb.ca

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition October 19, 2009 D1

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