PM foiled by mess of his own making

There are some dusty old metaphors that are such a good fit for current events, you wonder if the original authors were clairvoyant.Take "hoisted by one's own petard" for example. The original reference is Shakespearean, and refers to the grave possibility that someone deploying a petard -- a bell-shaped, metal-encased explosive device -- would be blown up before he could escape. In modern parlance, it is used to describe someone who is mortally wounded by a plan of his or her own making.

Now, consider that metaphor while reviewing the events of the last 48 hours in the House of Commons.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper returned from winning a second minority government to announce that his government would cut spending, rather than increase spending to stimulate the economy. And, he announced that among those cuts, he would do away with a per-vote subsidy for registered parties. To top things off, he wrapped up all this cynical goodness in a single bill and declared it a matter of confidence, meaning that its defeat would trigger another election.

How mischievous and clever.

The opposition immediately reacted by threatening not only to defeat the Tories on this bill, but also to approach the Governor General with a plan to have opposition parties form a coalition government.

Hoisted by one's own petard? How delightfully appropriate.

Friday was a day of profound backpedalling for the Conservative government. First, Harper signalled the per-vote subsidy measure would be hived off to a separate bill to be dealt with later in the legislative session, essentially removing it as a confidence issue that could bring down the government.

Unfortunately, this turned out to be a massive miscalculation. Harper clearly thought moving the vote subsidy from the budget bill would blunt the opposition's appetite for defeating the government. He didn't notice, however, that the opposition was building its case for a coalition government on another issue entirely.

In case you hadn't heard, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty delivered a turkey just in time for U.S. Thanksgiving.

Economists from across the political spectrum have urged developed countries to spend, not cut spending, to soften the blow from the global economic crisis. In stark defiance, Jim delivered a mini-budget on Thursday that cut $6 billion in federal spending, primarily to avoid going into deficit.

It would be very difficult to find many economists who think cutting $6 billion will do anything other than expedite Canada's slide into recession.

Frustration over Flaherty's underwhelming mini-budget is exacerbated by the fact that just six weeks ago, the finance minister said he would not pursue anti-deficit measures at the expense of the greater good of the economy. There is little doubt now that Flaherty was not sincere when he promised ideology would not cloud his economic strategy.

The reality for the Tories is that Flaherty's preposterous economic statement is a much more viable reason to bring down the Harper government. Had Harper left the vote subsidy a matter of confidence, he could have portrayed his enemies as desperate leeches who would bring down a government to sustain their allowances.

That argument is now gone.

If that weren't enough, Harper ended the work week by backing away from a plan to bring forward his mini-budget bill on Monday. The budget bill will now be delayed a week to postpone the vote that could defeat the government.

That sound you hear is the fuse on the petard being lit.

As Harper was making this announcement, national news reports indicated that frantic Tory MPs were reaching out to opposition colleagues to find out what it would take to avoid a vote of non-confidence. The Tories may now have to face the possibility that to stay in power, they have to drop most, if not all, of the spending cuts and adopt a new plan drafted by the opposition to stimulate the economy.

There is peril for the opposition if the public views a bid for a coalition government as arrogant and anti-democratic. Or if the alliances formed damage the brand of the parties participating in the coalition. But the sheer audacity of Flaherty's policies is certainly giving the opposition all the motivation it needs to consider reckless behaviour.

Tory loyalists will argue the prime minister hasn't been hoisted by his own petard. Not yet. But it seems more and more likely that Harper will be wounded when this mess detonates. Whether it is a flesh wound, or a mortal wound, has yet to be determined.

But someone is going to get hurt.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition November 29, 2008 A4