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Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION

Almanac might just be wrong this time

By: Bradley Bouzane

Posted: 09/3/2009 1:00 AM | Comments: 0 (including replies)

WINTER -- still a couple of months away -- is likely the furthest thing from most people's minds, but Canada's weather guru says the odds are in Canada's favour this year for those who hate to bundle up.

Despite the Farmer's Almanac calling for a harsh, frigid winter for much of the United States, Dave Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada, said another El Nino weather event will give Canadians a better chance to enjoy a milder 2009-10 winter.

"(The Farmer's Almanac) looks at moon phases and tea leaves and all that stuff; we put a little bit of science into it," Phillips said Wednesday. "We're not necessarily a lot more accurate than they are, but we think there are things you can look at to give you a clue of how the winter will be.

"Unlike the Farmer's Almanac -- if they're calling for a more brutal, old-fashioned winter -- our models are suggesting it might not be that way."

El Nino is a warm Pacific Ocean current that occurs every three to five years. The current tends to disrupt typical weather patterns in North America.

There have been 17 El Nino "episodes" since 1950, with most of those years resulting in milder than normal conditions for many regions of Canada. Although conditions vary from coast to coast, the warm Pacific air of El Nino tends to deliver more pleasant temperatures.

"When you look back over those (El Nino) winters, the vast majority of them, for many parts of Canada, were warmer than normal," Phillips said.

-- Canwest News Service

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition September 3, 2009 A2

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