Another year, another flood looms

JAY PICKTHORN / THE ASSOCIATED PRESS Enlarge Image

A Moorhead, Minn., resident reinforces a flood wall protecting his home from the swollen Red.

The fight begins, but it won't be close to the frenzy we saw last year.

That was the main message from the province Thursday as this spring's flood fight kicks into high gear along the Red River.

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Fargo resident Jason Tesch works on a walkway to his home. (SPENCER GREEN / THE ASSOCIATED PRESS)

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A street in Moorhead, Minn., is left underwater. (JAY PICKTHORN / THE ASSOCIATED PRESS)

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Highway department worker Nate Trosen anchors a roadside delineator post north of Fargo. (JIM MONE / THE ASSOCIATED PRESS)

"The Red River is, of course, the big problem," the province's chief flood forecaster, Alf Warkentin, said at Thursday's flood briefing. "There is so much water coming from the U.S. side that we're still going to have a flood."

Right now, officials are predicting a flood on par with the one we saw in 2006, not as bad as last year and certainly nothing compared to the Flood of the Century in 1997.

But water coming up from the United States, which has seen more snow and rain, means officials are already planning to close Highway 75 at Morris for up to 12 days.

In Winnipeg today, city crews will begin notifying 25 homeowners in low-lying areas about building sandbag dikes. On Monday, the city starts up its two sandbag machines to begin delivering them next week. About 35,000 bags will be needed.

"We're watching how things are going," said Grant Mohr, land drainage and flood protection engineer for the City of Winnipeg. "Next week, things will be more sharpened up."

Warkentin said the good news is that with the melt in southern Manitoba for the most part over, a lot of water will be gone before the high water arrives from the U.S.

"Still, it's a big enough flood to cause havoc with a lot of people in the valley, access and transportation issues," he said.

The weather factor

How much rain and snow falls over the Red River valley over the next two weeks will be the deciding factor in how serious flooding actually is, Warkentin said.

Most snow in the Manitoba portion of the valley has melted gradually and runoff into the Red has been minimal as the province did not get much precipitation over the winter.

South of us it's a different story. Fargo, still weary from last year's near-catastrophic flood, is sandbagging again. The National Weather Service forecasts the river to crest Sunday at 20 feet above the flood stage, meaning homes, parks and roads in several low-lying neighborhoods could be threatened. In Grand Forks, officials have closed two bridges in advance of the higher water. The Red River in Grand Forks is expected to reach major flood stage of 47 to 49 feet next week, but city leaders say that level will cause few problems. The permanent levee system protects the city to 60 feet.

The crest is expected to hit Emerson by the end of the month and Winnipeg by April 6, about two weeks earlier than normal. The Winnipeg floodway is expected to be activated as early as March 24. The crest in Winnipeg is expected to be about 12.8 feet, below the 2009 crest of 22.3 feet.

"We're keeping our fingers crossed on the weather," Warkentin said. "The weather has been so great. It may not continue indefinitely.

"We hoping that nice weather will continue for another two weeks. That would put us out of the woods, not totally, as there is still a chance that if heavy rain develops after that in April that we could develop a second crest, possibly."

Highway 75

It will be closed for 11 to 12 days as high water moves north from the U.S., likely in the first few days in April as the crest moves through. Traffic will be rerouted west.

Infrastructure and Transportation Minister Steve Ashton said Thursday the closure can't be avoided this year, but it might in future years.

He said the province will launch a hydraulic study to look at what should be done to keep the highway open in minor flood years. One plan would see the Morris River moved so it crosses Hwy. 75 further north of town and doesn't flood out the bridge on the north end of town. Public meetings are also planned.

"There are no simple answers," Ashton said. "We've looked at 34 separate options. We've narrowed it down to options we believe are feasible and accomplish the goal."

Last year, the highway was closed 36 days and in 2006 it was closed 18 days.

Access to St. Adolphe, St. Jean, Emerson, Brunkild and Gretna, as in 2006, may be partially restricted because of high water this spring.

Highway 200 on the east side of the Red River south of St. Norbert will also be closed.

North of Winnipeg

The worst flooding in 2009 happened north of Winnipeg when ice jams smashed into homes and cottages at Breezy Point and caused floodwaters to back up into homes in nearby St. Clements and St. Andrews.

Officials are confident ice jams won't be a problem this spring as the province has smashed 17 kilometres of ice from Selkirk to the mouth of Winnipeg over the past month. The ice is also thinner this year.

"We're keeping our fingers crossed because with ice you never know for sure, but it does look pretty optimistic," Warkentin said.

St. Clements Mayor Steve Strang said he and other local leaders are also confident Ottawa and the province are close to announcing a joint dike-building project for flood-prone areas on both sides of the Red River.

He said with Provencher MP Vic Toews now federal public safety minister, an announcement will likely be made soon. The local communities have already submitted plans about what they think needs to be done to protect residents.

"Our goal is to stand on the dike and just watch the water go by," Strang said.

The rest of Manitoba

The Assiniboine River will stay within its banks with some possible overflowing in low areas. The Portage Diversion will be operated, if needed, to prevent ice jams and flooding from Portage la Prairie to Winnipeg.

The flood potential is moderate on the Pembina River and, with soil moisture significantly lower than last year, much of the water is expected to soak into the ground.

Flooding is unlikely along Assiniboine River tributaries due to a gradual melt. On the Souris River, flooding of agricultural land from the U.S. border to near Melita is expected, but peak water levels should be lower than last year and only slightly higher than 2005 based on normal weather from now on. Buildings will not be affected.

In the Interlake, the Fisher River is not expected to flood. Levels at Peguis First Nation are well below flood stage. Minor overland flooding of low-lying areas is expected based on normal weather over the next two weeks.

bruce.owen@freepress.mb.ca

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition March 19, 2010 A4