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Arctic ice melt alarms scientists

Local professor relates first-hand view of faster-than-expected change

By: Bruce Owen

6/02/2010 1:00 AM | Comments: 40

Prof. David Barber relates his findings at a symposium in Winnipeg Friday.

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Prof. David Barber relates his findings at a symposium in Winnipeg Friday. (RUTH.BONNEVILLE@FREEPRESS.MB.CA)

A Canadian Coast Guard icebreaker makes its way through the ice in Baffin Bay. A local researcher says the melt of sea ice surpasses even pessimistic forecasts.

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A Canadian Coast Guard icebreaker makes its way through the ice in Baffin Bay. A local researcher says the melt of sea ice surpasses even pessimistic forecasts. (JONATHAN HAYWARD / THE CANADIAN PRESS ARCHIVES)

Sea ice in Canada's fragile Arctic is melting more quickly than anyone expected, the lead investigator in the largest climate change study done in Canada said Friday.

University of Manitoba Prof. David Barber, the lead investigator of the Circumpolar Flaw Lead System study, said the rapid decay of thick Arctic Sea ice highlights the rapid pace of climate change in the North and forecasts what will come in the south.

"We're seeing it happen more quickly than what our models thought would happen," Barber said at a student symposium on climate change at FortWhyte Alive. "It's happening much faster than our most pessimistic models suggested."

Barber and more than 300 scientists from around the globe spent last winter on the Canadian Coast Guard research ship Amundsen in the Arctic studying the impact of climate change. It was the first time a research vessel remained mobile in open water during the winter season. The Canadian government provided $156 million in funding for the study.

Barber said the melting sea ice can be compared to disappearing rainforests.

"If you go into the rainforest and you cut down all the trees, the ecosystem in that rainforest will collapse," he said. "If you go to the Arctic and you remove all the sea ice or if you remove the timing of the sea ice, the system will change."

That includes more invasive species moving up from the south and species that live in the Far North having to adapt to a different environment. Cyclones have also increased, which contribute to ice breakup.

Barber said before the expedition, scientists were working under the theory that climate change would happen much more slowly. It was assumed the Arctic would be ice-free in the winter by 2100.

"We expect it will happen much faster than that, much earlier than that, somewhere between 2013 and 2030 are our estimates right now. So it's much faster than what we would expect to happen. That can be said for southern climates as well."

The impact means more variability in the Earth's climate -- warm trends are warmer and cold trends are colder.

Dr. John Hanesiak, an associate professor at the U of M's Centre For Earth Observation Science, said those extremes, due to human actions and the release of greenhouse gases, might include more frequent summer droughts and more spring floods in southern climates.

"We know that we're part of the problem," he said. "There's no question about that. The models are telling us that now."

Scot Nickels, senior science adviser with Canada's national Inuit organization Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami, said the impact of climate change has been significant on people who live in the North. It's changing their way of life as wildlife adapt and traditional hunting patterns change.

"There's also the need for economic development," Nickels said, adding mineral and oil exploration has also increased with changing weather. "It's a real balancing act that has to be done. As we know in the south that's not an easy thing. It's the same up north."

Dr. Steve Ferguson, a research scientist with the Fisheries and Oceans Canada, said the thinning ice and warming water bring species from the south and the potential for the spread of disease. "There's phocine distemper that in Europe has wiped out a huge number of harbour seals," he said. "There's now evidence some of that disease is in some of the Arctic seals, so there's concern that as things warm more further north, we can see some epidemics.

"Even killer whales, for example, we now know they move into the Arctic, but they come from quite far south, so again, they're in contact with other kinds of whale species in southern areas and they're bringing something potentially up north to the Arctic."

bruce.owen@freepress.mb.ca

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition February 6, 2010 A3

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40 Commentscomment icon

Climate change has been happening since the begining of time, there was a time where the deserts of africa were jungles and got alot of rain,there was also a time where europe was completely frozen. the climate always changes. Not denying that its happening but its not nessiarily a scary thing.

I wonder if Bruce Owen has yet learned the meaning of "reporting". This article contains some real leads for some real news stories, over and above the scientific phantasmagoria and endless source of funding that the melting ice caps have become. Had he really read the information he was given or typed himself he would see some possibilities. Or maybe the article had a serious typo. For one, “the Canadian government provided $156 million for the study” which, if I read it right, took place on the Canadian Coast Guard research ship, “with 300 scientists from all over the world”. Excuse me? Is this a luxury cruiser? How does a sparse Coast guard cutter accommodate 300 scientists AND crew? It ain’t no cruise ship.

And how many of those scientists are Canadian? Even if we pretend to be a global scientific player and somehow decided to fund our own and the rest of these scientists, the $156 million amounts to $520, 000 per scientist. Wouldn’t you think there’s a real news story in there somewhere like maybe what the hell do 300 scientists DO with a half million each in a year notwithstanding the same old predictions of melting ice, sick seals and maybe trouble with Orcas?

You now know the reason why I gave up on my regular Freep subscription and only pick up the odd copy. And this is certainly an example of odd copy.

Dear Sean, there are many articles and scientists who refute global warming and don't believe it's caused completely by humans.

Does Climategate ring a bell? Perhaps you should read outside of what the liberal media writes and be more open minded instead of listening to scammers like Al Gore and David Suzuki.

Well, I wish that I can say that I am surprised that it took all of 3 hours for jackvanimpe.ca to respond to my comments, linking my thought process to that of a "14 year old boy", but I am not surprised in the slightest. Quite the contrary-it is EXACTLY what I expected. There is no room for other opinions in this debate (or sciences for that matter, but we will get to that). Those who disagree are dismissed and derided for expressing an opinion that does not follow narrow concensus. I would like to say that this is confined to just a few, but what we are seeing here is a pattern that has repeated itself throughout history, and unfortunately, throughout science. Jackvanimpe.ca et al would like us to believe that science is infallible-true, indisputable, and above politics. We should just accept, ad hoc, with results that scientists provide, as they are never wrong. Unfortunately, this is not the case. As I am not permitted to provide links to other pages, I would ask that anyone who wishes to see examples of what I am stating, to Google Michael Crichton's web page. Under his "Speeches" section, look for a lecture he gave on January 17, 2003 titled "Aliens Cause Global Warming". It is an intelligent, articulate speech on what scientific process has become, and how it how fallible it can be, especially when coupled with politics. I sincerely doubt jackvanimpe.ca, et al, will read this speech, as it does not jib with his opinion. But to others, it shows why we should be skeptics

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All the fraudulently led people should consult one of their own journalists in her recent article in The Globe and Mail:
by .... Margaret Wente .... The great global warming collapse ...


In my earlier comment regarding 1700-1800's global warming I stand by what I say ... temperatures were just as warm around 1850 to 1870 as today. The reason many people are not aware of it is because the (fake) hockey stick graph conveniently left it out. You have been fooled.

If you have been suckered by the global warming fraud , feel free to change your position. Margaret Wente has opened the door for you . Much more to come in the months ahead. Do not be the last one defending falsities. It will harm your credibility. Best regards.

perhaps some of the more zealous proponents of climate change might like to check out margaret wente's article in today's globe and mail, "the great global warming collapse".

just like that
"We know that we're part of the problem," he said. "There's no question about that.
This is a statement refuted by literally hundreds of highly qualified scientists around the world. A dead giveaway these guys have made their minds up, and are not listening to their dissenting colleagues, who are just as qualified as they are.
I am shocked and disappointed by your lack of tolerance for anything other than your own point of view. Hopefully you're not in government, or any other position of power.
Actually, the scientists can only report on the research they have done. The responsibility lies with the writer and his editor to put this tiny amount of information on such a complex topic into the proper perspective.
In this case, they have not done that- and hence the dishonest presentation to the reader.

I have come to the conclusion after reading some of these posts that there must be a group of 14 year old boys who are simply screwing with everyone. No one can be as silly as Rigal or KJD and Rambo's on this thread, they don't make any sense and their posts sound as if they were written by high school students. They have never provided any facts or studies from reputable sources, they just like to go against the grain because they are kids. They make lots of noise but what they say has no credibility. Who are you going to believe Trott and friends on this thread or the scientists. Really. An 8th grader or a PHD. Really

It really amazes me how often someone is quick to label someone a "Denier", "Liars", "Ignorant", "Naive", and so on....when they question Global Warming or the Science behind it. No room for debate-we are right and you are wrong. The science is proven. Google it and you can see-so one "sage" person wrote.

Well guess what-when you do Google something with regards to Global Warming, you get a wide range of web pages, many offering differnt opinions from support to the IPCC theories, to those who use science to disprove them. Which one is right? Doesn't matter-as long as someone believes that they are right and everyone else is a "denier" who doesn't agree with them.

I am a Skeptic. Despite what many people will say, it is not a bad or dirty word. There are many questions that have not been answered-Google it and you will see, but you actually have to read web pages and articles that you do not agree with. This is the basis of an informed decision-knowing all sides of the agruement. Looking at all of the science-not just the part you think is right. I honestly believe that there are too many people here who read only what agrees with thier opinion and ignore everything that doens't. All I have to do is look at the comments that are made to know that it is true.

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In a CBC interview, either Barber or one of the other scientists associated with this study, claimed that, because of human activity, the Arctic would soon be ice-free in summer for the first time in a million years. How interesting but what sort of human activity caused the region to be ice-free a million years ago? This is a typical example of how these global warming advocates shoot themselves in the feet on a regular basis. In addition when they keep asserting that we can expect more violent storms because of the human-induced climate change, they are again wrong because there's no evidence that this has been happening. If such storms are causing more property damage in coastal areas it's due to the fact that populations have been increasing and property values escalating out of control, not because the storms are becoming more intense. So once again no one erodes environmentalists'credibility levels faster than they themselves.

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