Conservatives hit magic 50

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Prime Minister Stephen Harper responds to a question during Question Period on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Wednesday December 9, 2009. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld (CP)

OTTAWA -- The federal Conservatives got a magic number of 50 for Christmas.

A new poll of federal political leanings in Manitoba shows exactly half of Manitoba voters currently back Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Conservatives.

The Probe Research/Winnipeg Free Press poll was taken by phone between Nov. 25 and Dec. 5. The results are considered correct within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The poll results show the NDP at 22 per cent of decided Manitoba voters, the Liberals at 21 per cent and the Green Party at seven per cent. Fifteen per cent of those polled were undecided.

The Tory hold on the Manitoba federal political scene comes through loud and clear in the poll as they dominate voters in every region, age and across all income groups.

The party has come close to cracking the magic 50 number before but this is the first time Probe Research vice-president Chris Adams can find that the Conservatives actually hit it.

In October 2007, March 2008 and during the 2008 federal election, the Conservatives hit 49 per cent in Manitoba.

Adams notes this poll was taken before much of the current controversy over Afghan detainees and the revelation this past week Canadians did, in fact, hand over an Afghan from Canadian custody who was then abused by Afghan forces.

It also wouldn't take into account any impact on the Conservatives from the climate-change negotiations in Copenhagen, Denmark, where Canada has been repeatedly labelled a "fossil of the day" by international environment groups.

The unflattering distinction is given to countries deemed to be the worst offenders at delaying and disrupting negotiations towards a global agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Adams said the Afghan torture issue hasn't been great for the Conservatives this week but it is not the type of top-of-mind vote-affecting issue that gets much attention off Parliament Hill. But the environment, Canada's reputation internationally and the government's action to reduce greenhouse gases could be, he noted.

Adams said he thinks one of the main reasons the Conservatives are riding high in Manitoba is the lack of any particular reason for the province's voters to be angry with them. Manitobans just aren't that worried about, or affected by, the recession, said Adams.

"It's not like the Manitoba voters are blaming the Tories for running the economy here into the ground," he noted.

The inability of Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff to make headway with voters is apparent in the poll. The Liberals had climbed up to 26 per cent among Manitoba voters last June. But in the last six months, the Liberals have lost almost all the ground they gained since the last election and the disaster of former Liberal leader Stéphane Dion and his ill-advised Green Shift platform.

In October 2008, the Liberals earned the votes of 19 per cent of Manitobans, just two points shy of their current support of 21 per cent.

The Liberals are down to just one seat in the province, Winnipeg South Centre. The good news in this poll for the Liberals, said Adams, is that the Grit support in that seat is holding firm and the Liberals do show potential room for gains in Winnipeg.

The Conservatives hold double-digit leads over both the Liberals and NDP in the northwest, southeast and northeast quadrants of the city. In the core area, the NDP is ahead of the Conservatives 43 points to 31. But in the southwest, the Conservatives' lead over the Liberals is just seven points -- 39 to 32.

mia.rabson@freepress.mb.ca

Breakdown of the results

Probe Research/Free Press poll on federal voting intentions interviewed 1,000 people. The results are considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Provincewide

(October 2008 election results are in brackets)

Conservatives 50 (49)

Liberals 21 (19)

NDP 22 (24)

Green 7 (6.8)

Winnipeg

Conservatives 43

Liberals 24

NDP 26

Green 7

Outside Winnipeg

Conservative 59

Liberals 17

NDP 15

Green 7

Current party standings in Manitoba

Conservative 9

Liberals 1

NDP 4

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition December 14, 2009 A6