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Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION
Despite weather, flood forecast in works
MANITOBA Water Stewardship is working on a spring flood forecast despite this winter's mild and relatively dry weather.
Provincial flood forecasters plan to unveil a preliminary flood outlook before the end of February, spokesman Paul White said Friday.
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Although much of southern Manitoba has experienced dry conditions since June, ground moisture levels -- one of the factors that increases the probability of localized or regional flooding -- remain significant in some areas of the province.
While moisture levels are well below those recorded last winter, when the province began preparing for major spring flooding, conditions are comparable to the early months of 1997, the year of the Flood of the Century in the Red River Valley, White said.
But across most of southern Manitoba, the snowpack -- another major factor in determining flooding -- is much lower this year. That can change significantly before the spring snowmelt, as one or two blizzards can be the difference between a major flood and no flooding whatsoever.
Somewhat paradoxically, the province is also preparing for the possibility of a drought this summer, as the low snowpack can lead to surface conditions unfavourable for agriculture. The province is still working on a new drought outlook, White said.
For several years, climatologists have warned the Canadian Prairies may experience spring flooding and summer drought during the same year as a result of earlier snowmelt and more frequent instances of extreme weather events. Climate-change forecasts for mid-continental regions across the planet call for greater variability in what are already highly variable climates.
Metereologists, however, caution it's too soon to attribute recent instances of unusual weather in southern Manitoba to climate change.
Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition February 4, 2012 A13
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