Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION
HIV cases surge 20% in Manitoba
Experts analyze potential causes
Provincial health officials are investigating whether there's cause for alarm after the number of new HIV cases jumped by more than 20 per cent last year.
The latest Manitoba Health disease statistics posted online reveal that 108 new HIV cases were reported in 2009 -- up from 88 the previous year.
The spike comes just two years after health experts initially expressed concern that an HIV epidemic could erupt among Manitoba First Nations. Previous data show about one-third of all new infections recorded in the last decade were among aboriginals, leaving Manitoba with one of the highest per-capita HIV rates in the country.
Manitoba's chief medical officer Dr. Joel Kettner said it's too early to draw firm conclusions about the increase, saying experts are still analyzing data. There are concerns an increase in risky sexual activity and intravenous-drug use could be driving the rise in new cases, but Kettner said it could also be the result of a push to get more Manitobans to take an HIV test.
The majority of HIV cases in Manitoba are reported in Winnipeg, and demographic information on the new infections is still unavailable.
"It's not immediately clear," Kettner said.
"It could just be we're getting better and more people are coming forward for testing."
Kettner said experts will evaluate the new data to determine if HIV transmission is increasing and examine whether there is a connection between other sexually transmitted infections and factors such as intravenous drug use. He estimates that for every positive case of HIV, there are two to three other Manitobans who are HIV positive and don't know it.
The rise in HIV cases coincides with a spike in other sexually transmitted infections, including chlamydia and gonorrhea. More than 6,300 Manitobans tested positive in 2009 for chlamydia -- up from about 4,200 in 2007.
"It's definitely a concern," Kettner said. "We know intravenous drug use is becoming a more important risk factor for HIV and of course (high-risk) heterosexual activity has increased."
The last provincial HIV report was released in 2007, and revealed HIV is spreading faster in heterosexual First Nations populations than other populations -- the same way it did in certain parts of sub-Saharan Africa where people who had unprotected sex with multiple partners helped spread the disease. It also revealed the disease shifted from affecting primarily men to increasingly women.
Between 1985 and 2007, a total of 1,477 Manitobans tested positive for HIV, including 262 people who went on to develop AIDS. A total of 74 per cent of Manitobans with AIDS died during that time period, including at least two people in 2007.
Overall, Kettner said the number of HIV cases in Manitoba has been relatively stable with some fluctuations. He said 120 new HIV cases were reported in 2005, and that higher numbers don't necessarily reflect increased transmission of the disease.
"We do know there has been an increase in testing and the rate in the last 20 years hasn't changed too much," Kettner said.
Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition March 8, 2010 A4
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