Katz's council clout in danger

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Sam Katz can currently count on no fewer than 10 out of 16 votes on city council.

One year before he faces Winnipeg voters for the third and final time, Mayor Sam Katz is in danger of winning the proverbial election battle but losing a larger council war.

Winnipeggers elect a new mayor and council on Oct. 27, 2010. So far, nobody has stepped forward to challenge Katz in a mayoral race he is all but certain to enter and very likely to win.

"I have always said if I thought I was making significant headway and enacting positive change at city hall, I would run for another term," the mayor said in an interview last week. "I am of the opinion, and so are many others, that we're making progress at city hall."

Katz, the most recent Probe Research/Free Press poll shows, enjoys a favourable approval rating from 74 per cent of Winnipeg adults. More importantly, he effectively controls the legislative agenda at city hall.

Only once during the current council term has Katz lost a significant vote, thanks to the fact he can usually count on no fewer than 10 out of 16 votes in the chamber: his own, plus those of all six members of his centre-right executive policy committee, council speaker Harry Lazarenko (Mynarski) and Tory-affiliated Couns. Jeff Browaty (North Kildonan) and Grant Nordman (St. Charles).

Katz's sole significant defeat was last March, when the absence of two councillors and a vacancy in River Heights allowed an opposition-sponsored ethics motion to squeak by 7-6.

Usually, the mayor's supporters handily outnumber the unofficial opposition, whose ranks increased to six this September when Transcona Coun. Russ Wyatt was kicked out of EPC and rejoined the New Democratic Party.

But Katz's 10-6 advantage will very likely erode by a seat or two following the 2010 general election, thanks to the impending retirement of Katz ally Mike O'Shaughnessy (Old Kildonan) and what's shaping up to be a concerted effort by the left to defeat fellow EPC member Mike Pagtakhan in Point Douglas.

In the 2006 election, O'Shaughnessy fended off a challenge from labour-endorsed candidate Ross Eadie -- a well-known figure in north Winnipeg politics -- by only 809 votes. Eadie plans to run in Old Kildonan again in 2010 and could be considered the frontrunner, even though O'Shaughnessy is certain to groom a centrist or conservative successor in an effort to prevent his old seat from falling to the left.

Meanwhile, Pagtakhan had even more trouble in 2006 in Point Douglas, where the labour-endorsed Tim Bednarski came up short by 647 votes. Bednarski, who also came second to Pagtakhan in a wide-open 2002 Point Douglas race, is now considering a third run at the Liberal-affiliated EPC councillor.

"I thought I had him last time," said Bednarski, who said he does not believe Katz knows how to govern a city council where he no longer can count on the nine votes required to pass legislation. "I think he would go absolutely crazy. If he can't get his (agenda) across, he wouldn't last long. He might get so frustrated, he might even bail."

True enough, Sam Katz enjoys more power than any mayor in recent Winnipeg history. Previous mayors Glen Murray and Susan Thompson were forced to lobby councillors in order to pass crucial pieces of legislation.

Controlling the floor of council is so important, Katz formally supported council candidates in three strategic wards during the 2006 general election, which saw him knock on doors on behalf of Pagtakhan in Point Douglas, endorse the late Brenda Leipsic's bid to defeat Donald Benham in River Heights, and aid Franco Magnifico in a losing battle to Dan Vandal in St. Boniface.

Unlike in 2006, when Katz employed strategist Ryan Craig as his chief of staff, the mayor has no political mastermind at his side to begin developing battle plans for the 2010 election. Katz has declined to appoint a new chief of staff following the July departure of Craig's successor, Sherwood Armbruster.

Katz contends it does not matter how many supporters he has on city council, and derides the notion that party politics play any role.

"We're all supposed to be on the same team. As far as I'm concerned, I have a team of 15 councillors and the mayor," Katz said. "One of my strengths is bringing consensus. I've been very successful. I came in knowing nobody.

"When I first got elected, I had zero votes... Every councillor decides how they feel on an issue and they vote for what they think is best. You're making all sorts of assumptions I don't think are valid."

bartley.kives@freepress.mb.ca

ONE YEAR TO GO: How the Oct. 27, 2010 general election is shaping up

The mayor

Sam Katz
First elected: 2004. Political orientation: Small-c conservative. Prospects for 2010: All but certain to run for re-election.

Executive Policy Committee councillors

Gord Steeves (St. Vital)
First elected: 2000. Political orientation: Liberal. Prospects for 2010: A safe re-election bet; mayoral ambitions for 2014.

Justin Swandel (St. Norbert)
First elected: 2005. Political orientation: Liberal. Prospects for 2010: Another safe re-election bet with long-term mayoral ambitions.

Scott Fielding (St. James-Brooklands)
First elected: 2006. Political orientation: Conservative. Prospects for 2010: Safe, pending changes to Winnipeg's ward boundaries.

Mike Pagtakhan (Point Douglas)
First elected: 2002 Political orientation: Liberal. Prospects for 2010: Vulnerable to challenge from NDP-affiliated Tim Bednarski.

Bill Clement (Charleswood-Tuxedo)
First elected: 1983. Political orientation: Conservative. Prospects for 2010: Safe as long as he chooses to run.

Mike O'Shaughnessy (Old Kildonan)
First elected: 1974. Political orientation: Right-wing Liberal. Prospects for 2010: Due to retire. Labour-endorsed Ross Eadie will vie for the empty seat.

Other Katz supporters

Jeff Browaty (North Kildonan)
First elected: 2006. Political orientation: Conservative. Prospects for 2010: Safe in his seat.

Grant Nordman (St. Charles)
First elected: 2006. Political orientation: Conservative. Prospects for 2010: Probably safe.

Harry Lazarenko (Mynarski)
First elected: 1974. Political orientation: Former NDP member, currently non-aligned. Prospects for 2010: Plans to run again; vulnerable to organized NDP-led challenge.

The unofficial opposition

Dan Vandal (St. Boniface)
First elected: 1995. Political orientation: NDP. Prospects for 2010: A safe re-election bet. Will likely resist calls to run for mayor.

Jenny Gerbasi (Fort Rouge-East Fort Garry)
First elected: 1998. Political orientation: NDP. Prospects for 2010: Safe.

Russ Wyatt (Transcona)
First elected: 2002. Political orientation: Newly minted NDP member. Prospects for 2010: Safe. May eventually run for mayor.

Lillian Thomas (Elmwood-East Kildonan)
First elected: 1989. Political orientation: NDP. Prospects for 2010: Vulnerable to organized challenge, but Tories unlikely to devote resources against her.

Harvey Smith (Daniel McIntyre)
First elected: 1980. Political orientation: NDP. Prospects for 2010: Vulnerable to challenge from left and/or right if he fails to secure NDP support.

John Orlikow (River Heights-Fort Garry)
First elected: 2009. Political orientation: Supported by both NDP and Liberals during March byelection. Prospects for 2010: Must work hard to hold on to seat after only 19 months.

-- Kives

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition October 26, 2009 B1