Local

Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION

Low snow melts spring flood fears

But province staying vigilant until ice breakup

By: Bruce Owen

Posted: 02/11/2012 1:00 AM | Comments: 0 (including replies) | Last Modified: 02/11/2012 1:57 PM | Updates

WINNIPEG FREE PRESS Enlarge Image

The new Amphibex AE400 at the news conference announcing it in East Selkirk, Manitoba. Left to right. St. Andrews Reeve Don Forfar, Peter Bjornson -MLA for Gimli, St. Clements Mayor Steve Strang, Manitoba Premier Greg Selenger, and Selkirk NDP MLA Greg Dewar. February 10, 2012 BORIS MINKEVICH / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS

Cross your fingers and pray we don't see 1997 again this spring.

That's the extent of the province's flood forecast heading into the April melt, one that at this point should be quick and painless with so little snow on the ground.

Enlarge Image

WINNIPEG FREE PRESS ARCHIVES Winnipeggers dig into the mounds of snow that preceded the Flood of the Century in April 1997.

How much the water has dropped

Lake Manitoba

Current level: 813.87 ft.

Flood level: 814 ft.

Flood peak: 817.15 ft.

Lake Manitoba peaked between July 12-25, its highest level in 50 years.

Lake St. Martin

Current level: 802.64 ft.

Flood level: 805-806 ft.

Flood peak: 805.5 ft.

Lake St. Martin peaked Aug. 1-11

Lake Winnipeg

Current level: 713.45 ft.

Flood peak: 716.9 ft.

Lake Winnipeg peaked July 8 to its highest elevation since regulation (711-715 ft.) began in 1976.

Devils Lake, N.D.

Current level: 1,453.37 ft.

Flood peak: 1,454.30 ft.

The U.S. National Weather Service says there's only a slim chance Devils Lake, in northeastern North Dakota, will reach a record level this summer. Devils Lake has quadrupled in size because of nearly two decades of wet weather, but has fallen about a foot from last summer's record level.

But that's only if we don't see a big blizzard like the one that began on April 5, 1997, leading to one of the biggest floods on record on the Red River.

Manitoba's first official flood forecast comes at the end of the month, but south of the border, the U.S. National Weather Service has already said the risk of significant flooding in the Red River Valley and across the rest of North Dakota and Minnesota is down from recent years because of the lack of snow. In fact, some areas are now seeing moderate to severe drought conditions. The risk is so low at this point there is nothing to suggest sandbaggers will be needed at places such as Grand Forks.

The National Weather Service also says the Souris River Basin in north-central North Dakota has a low risk of any flooding and there is no chance of major flooding at Minot, where the Souris reached record levels and swamped more than 4,000 homes and businesses last year.

The same is true on the Canadian prairies, where most areas, even those plagued by excessive moisture in recent years, went into the fall and winter with drier soil conditions.

"We think unless we have a major storm event, we're looking really good," RM of St. Clements Mayor Steve Strang said Friday. "We need it. It's our turn."

Despite the reduced risk, municipal and provincial workers will still hit the frozen Red River north of Selkirk next week to cut several kilometres of ice in advance of the spring breakup. Included in the fleet of machinery doing that work is a new $1.2-million Amphibex icebreaker. The machine, unveiled in East Selkirk by Premier Greg Selinger, is the fourth obtained by the province since 2006.

"The lessons have always been start early, stay vigilant, don't let weather forecasts fool you into thinking you can be complacent," Selinger said.

"We've seen in past floods that you can have a low-snow winter and at the same time get a lot of moisture in April, and you can still have some very severe conditions for flooding."

During the past few years, the province has increased its capacity to first cut and then smash up the river ice from Selkirk to the mouth of Lake Winnipeg to reduce the threat of ice jams and sudden overland flooding.

"Most jurisdictions let Mother Nature take its course and then they deal with the aftermath," Selinger said. "Here in Manitoba, we try to help Mother Nature along."

In 2009, an ice jam raised the level of the Red River about nine feet in several hours and flooded dozens of homes and cottages at Breezy Point. The ice on the river is about 18 inches thick on average this winter and, with help, should break up easier this year than in the past, Strang said.

"We've had a 10-year cycle of wet weather," he said. "If things keep the way they are this winter, I think we'll have a successful year in breaking the ice and a successful year in not seeing overland flooding."

St. Andrews Reeve Don Forfar agreed. In many areas, ditches and culverts are dry, so when the snow melts, runoff should flow easily.

"It's the water in the culvert that becomes ice that becomes an obstacle," he said. "They're open right now."

bruce.owen@freepress.mb.ca

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition February 11, 2012 A11

History

Updated on Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 1:57 PM CST: adds fact box

(You must be logged in to post your reaction)

Your reaction?

More Local

Undock

You can comment on most stories on winnipegfreepress.com. You can also agree or disagree with other comments. All you need to do is register and/or login and you can join the conversation and give your feedback.

The Winnipeg Free Press does not necessarily endorse any of the views posted. By submitting your comment, you agree to our Terms and Conditions. These terms were revised effective April 16, 2010; View the changes. New to commenting? Check out our Frequently Asked Questions.