Lowly Liberals lacking leadership candidates

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Jon Gerrard

How much lower can the Manitoba Liberals go?

The recent election was a wipeout for the Liberal party, which only garnered 7.8 per cent of the popular vote. That's about half of what it received in the 2007 election. This time, only 33,800 Manitobans voted Liberal, a drop of nearly 18,000 votes. That's a worrisome result.

Reading the writing on the wall, finally, Liberal Leader Jon Gerrard has decided to step down. He will remain at the helm until 2013, at which time a new leader will be selected.

At first blush, that seems like an awfully long time to wait. Most parties would jettison a lame-duck leader sooner and try to use the media attention that comes from a leadership race and convention to boost its fortunes. In this instance, it appears no one wants Gerrard's job. Were they to launch the campaign now, the Liberals would face the very real possibility nobody would step up to take the job.

In that scenario, the Liberal party would simply cease to exist. With two years to go before having to choose a new leader, the party has an opportunity to not only find viable candidates, but figure out if there is any future for the Grits. As it stands right now, it's not clear there is.

Gerrard did win his seat, but the rest of the campaign was an unqualified disaster. The low point came when former Liberal MPs Anita Neville and John Harvard signed a letter in support of NDP health minister Theresa Oswald, who was battling former city councillor Gord Steeves in Seine River.

It's not unheard of for members from one party, even high-profile current and former elected ones, to lend support to other parties. But it's normally done discreetly and out of public view. There have been notable exceptions.

In Manitoba, provincial Tory MLA Denis Rocan made news by supporting Liberal MP Reg Alcock. Rocan not only helped Alcock, he arranged for a newspaper reporter to take his picture erecting bright Liberal red Alcock signs. That photo spelled the end of Rocan's career as a provincial Tory; several years later he was defeated in a bid to retain his nomination.

For Gerrard, the Harvard-Neville letter was particularly harsh medicine to swallow. Gerrard was fighting in a valiant effort to retain his own seat in the Manitoba legislature, and had expressed some optimism his party could win at least two other seats. However, a letter from two prominent Liberals endorsing Oswald -- a bid by the NDP to capture as many disaffected Liberals as possible in Seine River -- not only dispelled any suggestion of gains, it was a pretty strong indication the provincial Grits were going down in flames.

Neville's participation in the letter was ironic. In the May federal election, Neville complained long and loud about what appeared to be an endorsement of her main opponent, Winnipeg South Tory candidate Joyce Bateman, by University of Winnipeg president and former Liberal MP Lloyd Axworthy. Bateman asked for and received permission to use a photo of her and Axworthy in her campaign literature. Axworthy later denied use of his image constituted an endorsement, but not many Grits agreed with him.

It's hard to understand how Neville, done a dirty deed by a fellow Liberal in the May federal election, could justify a public endorsement of an NDP cabinet minister in the provincial election. There's little doubt Neville was trying to employ an "anyone but a Tory" strategy, but surely she would know this letter would frame the struggling provincial Liberal party as a little closer to the end of its lifespan. Perhaps she did know this and, following her experience in May, doesn't care anymore.

And therein lies the problem. For years, commentators have been criticizing Gerrard for not giving up the leadership. Now that he's set the timetable for that to happen, many of us can see a scenario where nobody wants the job. Someone will step up to challenge for the leadership, but the chance of getting a polished, dynamic, charismatic leader seems to be lessening each day. Voters will see the absence of a serious candidate as identical to having no candidates at all.

It's certainly time for Liberals in this province to show they indeed do still care about their party. Intensive fundraising and recruitment of leadership candidates needs to start in earnest now. Two years to find a new leader, and two more years to rebuild the Liberal brand. It's not much time.

Being very near the bottom, the good news is there isn't much further for the Liberal Party of Manitoba to fall. The bad news is the next step down is off a cliff, a step from which there likely will be no return.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition October 25, 2011 A5