Not preparing for the worst has pitfalls

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Premier Greg Selinger listens as the throne speech is read. (JOHN WOODS / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

Just about everyone knows the world is changing, and that things we once took for granted have been turned upside down.

A year ago, many of us thought we had certainty about our jobs, our savings, our mortgages and how much we should worry about a runny nose. One year later, it's all topsy-turvy.

Premier Greg Selinger has acknowledged the new world order. On Monday, an hour before his first throne speech as premier, Selinger told a room full of journalists that Manitoba is still doing much better than the rest of the country when it comes to weathering the recession. However, in this case better does not necessarily mean good.

Selinger said Manitoba will finish the year by leading the country in economic growth -- which is to say that Manitoba's economy will contract this year, but less than other provinces.

"Flat is the new up," Selinger said with a grin that showed he was aware that he was offering up a "tallest-midget-at-the-circus" analysis.

The throne speech confirmed that Selinger is overseeing a treasury that is paying out more money than it is taking in. The current budget year, which ends next March, will see a deficit and will require a withdrawal from the $840-million rainy day fund. But with amendments to the balanced-budget law, Manitoba will still be above the line on a rolling, four-year average.

What about next year? Selinger wasn't about to give away the good, the bad or the ugly of next spring's budget, though he has frequently acknowledged that own-source revenues will be flat and equalization payments will be lower. Selinger does not think layoffs or cuts to spending in core service areas -- health, education, family services and justice -- will be necessary. But there will be belt-tightening in non-core departments and unfilled jobs may remain empty.

Selinger said economic recovery is a goal that will have to wait until the end of the 2010-2011 fiscal year.

If you wanted to take a particularly cynical tack on the throne speech, one might conclude that things are going to get much worse before they get better. However, if our prospects are dire, Monday's throne speech did a good job of masking any signs of desperation.

"Continue" was the most repeated word in the speech delivered in the legislature by Lt.-Gov. Philip Lee; very few, if any, of the initiatives that were launched when Gary Doer was premier have been shed. (There was no mention in the speech of money for a new football stadium for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and no reference to a provincial park for Point Douglas, both Doer priorities. That does not mean those issues are dead, only that they are not on the front burner.)

More importantly, Selinger signalled that he intends to follow through with corporate and small business tax cuts. He also announced a series of inexpensive niche gestures that suggest he is nowhere near the panic stage. It is tough to believe the province would provide tax credits for couples undergoing fertility treatments and cash for a Winnipeg Police Service helicopter if the bottom were about to drop out of the treasury.

It is, however, impossible to handicap a government by relying solely on a throne speech. Traditionally, the throne speech is a way for government to lay out its agenda for the upcoming legislative session. It is supposed to signal the start of something, but because of the timing, Manitoba's throne speeches have typically contained little in the way of new or future initiatives.

A November throne speech, which is typically when the NDP has opened a new legislative session, comes 11 months into calendar 2009 and more than six months into the 2009-10 fiscal year. This means the government has already decided what it is going to do now and for the next six months. And there is no chance Selinger would use the throne speech to upstage next year's provincial budget.

One would expect Selinger would use this throne speech as an opportunity to prepare us for the worst if, indeed, he saw that coming.

For now, Selinger said he is operating on a "steady as she goes" basis. Flat may indeed be the new up. But 'steady as she goes' could be the new suicide if things are worse than anyone knows.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca

What the critics say

"There was lip service to the economy, but no real, long-term solutions. I think the premier missed a real opportunity to not only jump-start the economy, but to make sure we're moving forward on some of the major issues of the day... It failed to provide real solutions to some of these chronic, long-term problems that have festered for the last 10 years under the NDP."

-- Liberal Leader Jon Gerrard

"We're in favour of recycling when it comes to the environment. Recycling when it comes to throne speeches, though, leaves you feeling a little bit underwhelmed."

-- Tory Leader Hugh McFadyen

"Our biggest concern is that spending is unsustainable in Manitoba. That problem hasn't been recognized by the government to date."

-- Colin Craig, Manitoba director, Canadian Taxpayers Federation

"It's a steady-as-you-go throne speech, very non-committal. I think we were hoping for more direction, particularly on the economic front."

-- Dave Angus, president, Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce

"For somebody (Selinger) who is out to redefine or out to define his leadership, I didn't get that. There were a lot of reannoucements."

-- Shannon Martin, Manitoba director of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition December 1, 2009 A5