PLUG IN but not yet

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Plug-in concept car on display at the Detroit Auto Show. (THE ASSOCIATED PRESS ARCHIVES)

It's  another round of the same old technol­ogy debate: buy the best model on the market today, or wait for the even better one that’s surely just around the corner?

For some wannabe green drivers with cash in their pockets, it could be the difference between buying a hybrid car now, or holding out for the glitzy new electric or plug-in hybrid models that drew headlines at this year's Detroit Auto Show.

"(Plug-in hybrids) are certainly neat technology with a lot of potential," said Ajaleigh Williams, local chapter coordinator for the Red River Valley Clean Cities Coalition, and one of the organizers of an annual conference that highlights alternative fuel vehicles.

Like existing hybrid cars, plug-in hybrids have both a gas engine and an electric motor. Unlike their predecessors, the plug-in models can be recharged by hooking up to an electrical socket, and can get by on electricity alone for all but lengthier trips.

Fans say they're an ideal fit in Manitoba, where hydro power is cheap and abundant, and most drivers are already accustomed to plugging in their cars overnight.

The notion of a plug-in hybrid isn't entirely new to Winnipeg: Manitoba Hydro has been testing converted Toyota Priuses since 2006.

A plug-in will give you everything a regular car does, along with significantly better fuel efficiency, said Arne Elias, executive director of the Centre for Sustainable Transportation at the University of Winnipeg.

You can't buy a plug-in hybrid commercially yet, although some companies will convert existing hybrids for a price, and the all-electric cars available now are too slow to meet Manitoba's highway standards.

But both plug-in hybrids and high-speed electric cars are set to hit the market over the next few years.

The Saturn Vue and Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrids should be available by 2010, and the $80,000 Fisker Karma should be in production this year. Mitsubishi wants to have an all-electric vehicle on the road by 2010, and Subaru is working on its own model with a range of up to 80 kilometres. But local sustainable driving experts say for now, hesitant buyers should stick with tried and tested hybrids already available, rather than waiting for newer, greener models.

Williams said if she were buying a new vehicle today she'd likely opt for hybrids already on the market, "because it's a longer-term, proven technology."

Manitoba already has 1,975 hybrid vehicles registered, according to Manitoba Public Insurance, about 800 more than a year ago. Some of those drivers might leap at the chance to upgrade to a plug-in version in a few years' time, but Williams said the average driver is better off waiting to see how the technology fares on the road, especially in Winnipeg winters.

Buyers should also consider the higher upfront costs that often come with new technology, she said. Some "early adopters" might be willing to fork over the extra cash, but "for the general public, hybrids are going to be more costly."

Williams, a project coordinator with the City of Winnipeg's fleet management agency, said the city's Ford Escape hybrids currently on the road cost an average of $5,500 more than the non-hybrid models.

However, Elias pointed out drivers could ultimately save money over the lifespan of their plug-in vehicle, depending on future fuel costs.

Availability of the new plug-in models could also be limited at first, regardless of rollout dates. Williams said it took the city six months to a year to land some of the coveted Priuses when they first hit the market.

Drivers with money to spend might still want to invest in new technology out of environmental commitment, said Elias, or in an effort to protect themselves from possible gas price hikes. And some might just enjoy the novelty, he said.

Unfortunately for hybrid buyers, a federal rebate program offering Canadians money back for fuel-efficient vehicles ended last year, although a provincial hybrid rebate worth $2,000 has been extended indefinitely.

There's no telling what rebates might be offered in Canada for plug-in hybrids, if any, but Elias said early discussions suggest the U.S. government might consider rebates worth about $5,000.

Despite the host of sustainable vehicles on the horizon, critics question whether some of them will ever see production. The green-themed Detroit Auto Show came on the heels of a controversial multibillion-dollar loan package for the suffering automotive industry, a bailout that's drawn plenty of environmental scrutiny.

Elias believes the bailout ignored smaller companies that might be equally or better-equipped to produce greener transportation.

"What we should be looking at is, who can deliver the kinds of cars that consumers want, and are sustainable," he said.

But Williams said there has been some talk about newly sworn-in U.S. President Barack Obama tying the bailout to sustainable vehicle building, which she thinks could be a bonus.

Some Winnipeggers might have given up on buying a hybrid as soon as gas prices came back down to earth, but buyers who opt out of the new technology shouldn't forget about fuel efficiency, said Elias.

Drivers might not like to recall the record $1.48 per litre price at the pumps just four months ago, but there's no telling what will happen to prices in the years after you buy your new car.

"You ameliorate your risk by getting the car that is the most efficient," he said.

And in the coming years, extreme gas guzzlers might pose more problems. A provincial advisory board has spent the past four months considering new emissions standards for Manitoba. Their recommendations won't be ready until the end of January, but the board is considering guidelines as strict as California, which wants to cut tailpipe emissions by 30 per cent by 2016.

lindsey.wiebe@freepress.mb.ca

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition January 25, 2009 B8