Political primer

Variables:

Jack Layton's health

The NDP leader has spent more than a year facing personal health issues including prostate cancer and, more recently, hip surgery. He said this week he is feeling "better by the day" and impressed everybody by appearing for a vote in the House of Commons just hours after being released from a Toronto hospital following the surgery.

He has kept up a brave face and insists his health is not a factor -- many in fact believed it would be the reason the NDP might have supported the government and prevented this election.

But Layton was there to vote to bring the government down Friday along with the Liberals and Bloc Québécois. However, his MPs and aides admit his election schedule will be dialled down for health reasons.

So expect fewer national campaign stops from the NDP. But Manitoba MP Pat Martin said fewer national events will not have any bearing on the party's results.

"Jack is loaded for bear and full of piss and vinegar," said Martin.

Party campaign themes:

 Stephen Harper, Conservative

Economic stability. The prime minister will bank his fourth election as Conservative party leader on his party's reputation for managing the economy. Most, if not all, polls give the Conservatives the edge in public opinion on matters of money.

Despite having forced an early election himself during economic uncertainty just 21/2 years ago, Harper is also trying to add fodder to the economic argument with accusations the opposition forcing this election are playing recklessly.

"Our economy is not a political game. The global recovery is still fragile," Harper said the day after it became clear all opposition parties planned to reject his budget and send Canadians to the polls.

The more positive of the Conservative ads of late have also focused on the theme of "Why change course now?" The attack ads focus in part on accusing the Liberals of planning to raise corporate taxes the Conservatives say will kill jobs.

Also expect the Conservatives to use the word 'coalition' as an epithet at every turn. The party has framed the choice in the election as being either a Conservative majority or a coalition of the Liberals, NDP and the separatist Bloc.

Michael Ignatieff, Liberal

Trust. Ignatieff will spend most of the election working overtime to convince voters the Harper Conservatives cannot be trusted and are a party that shuns democracy at every turn. The Liberals helped topple the government over a finding of contempt involving the government's refusal to provide details of how much its crime bills and fighter jets would cost. Ignatieff will also remind voters at every turn about the two times Harper prorogued Parliament to get out of sticky situations and the election advertising scandal that has four Conservative operatives facing legal charges under the Canada Elections Act, and the two former Conservative staffers the RCMP are investigating for possibly breaking the law. One involves a staffer meddling in access to information requests, the other a former Harper adviser and friend involved in illegal lobbying and using his government connections to promote a water treatment product for use on First Nations.

"To those who say an election is "unnecessary," I reply: We did not seek an election, but if we need one to replace a government that doesn't respect democracy with one that does, I can think of no more necessary an election," Ignatieff said Friday, in his speech supporting the Liberals' motion of non-confidence in the government.

Ignatieff will also argue the Liberals are the only party with the ability to defeat the Conservatives. He said Friday a vote for the NDP or Bloc or Greens is essentially a vote to keep Harper in power.

"If you want to replace the Harper government you've got to vote Liberal," Ignatieff said.

Jack Layton, NDP

The alternative. Although few ever look at the NDP and Jack Layton as serious contenders for forming a government, Layton will work to set himself apart from the mud-slinging between the Liberals and the Conservatives. The NDP wants to establish itself as the party that can get things done and is willing to co-operate across party lines regardless of who ends up winning the most seats.

Polls suggest Layton is popular with Canadians and is the most trusted of the national leaders.

The campaign will also focus in large part on defeating incumbent Conservatives, particularly in Edmonton and Vancouver.

Made-in-Manitoba campaign wheels

At least two of the national leaders will cruise around the country in tour buses brought to you by Manitoba's own Motor Coach Industries. Both the Liberals and NDP have leased MCI buses. The NDP bus has been wrapped in orange with a giant Jack Layton photo. The Liberals will not include a larger-than-life mug of Michael Ignatieff, focusing on the party as a whole rather than the leader.

The national campaigns have all secured airplanes. The Liberals' plane is a Boeing 737 leased from Calgary's Enerjet. It is a big step up from the gas-guzzling, heavily mocked 29-year-old clunker of a plane the Liberals were forced to use in 2008 thanks to some disorganized campaign planning.

The NDP have secured an Airbus from Air Canada.

The Conservatives, as of Friday afternoon, were still mum on the type of bus and plane they will be using.

War chests -- who will spend what

The Conservatives have routinely left the other parties in their dust when it comes to raising money. In 2010, the national party alone raised more than $17 million, more than double the $7 million the Liberals raised and more than four times the $4 million the NDP brought in.

That does not take into account what individual riding associations brought in as well.

Without the limits on spending an election campaign imposes, the Conservatives' superior fundraising abilities give them far more money to advertise and it shows in the number of television ad buys.

They also have the advantage all incumbent governments have of using taxpayer dollars to advertise government programs and accomplishments. Hundreds of billboards advertising the Economic Action Plan have blanketed the country.

Since December, the government has doled out $26 million of taxpayer money for a series of ads promoting the results of the economic stimulus package, including to buy television ad time during big-ticket programs including the Super Bowl and the Oscars. This week, the government cancelled plans to spend $4 million to advertise the federal budget, knowing the government was going to be voted down before the budget could actually take affect. Treasury Board rules prevent governments from promoting itself during an election, which means no more economic stimulus ads.

Once the campaign begins, the parties should be on more of an equal footing because all are limited to similar amounts for the campaign. The limits are based on the number of registered electors in the ridings where the parties run candidates. Parties also know they'll get rebated half of their eligible election expenses as long as they achieve at least two per cent of the popular vote nationally.

However, the Conservatives still have more money in the bank. In 2008 they were the only party to come close to reaching their spending limit, with $19.4 million in expenses. The NDP came in second, spending $16.7 million and Liberals came in at $14.5 million.

This year, the spending limit will likely be somewhere around $23 million.

There's an app for Jack

 The NDP are the first of the national parties to have their own election app. Launched this week, the free Jack Layton app for iPad, iPod Touch and iPhone will track the NDP campaign, serve notice of where Layton will be, help voters figure out who their own candidate is and even help them figure out where to vote.

Who will be next?

Campaigning 140 characters at a time

The last time there was a federal election in Canada almost nobody was a-Twitter. Fast-forward 21/2 years and the 140-character communication tool is front and centre.

Since Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi proved Twitter and other digital communication can take an underdog into first place last fall, expect more and more of this election to play out in the digital universe.

Hash tags for the federal campaign have been created and campaign operatives are on Twitter.

Even MPs who have shunned Twitter are jumping aboard. Manitoba Liberal MP Anita Neville joined a couple of months ago. Manitoba Conservative MP Candice Hoeppner signed up just last week. That still, however, leaves more than half the Manitoba MPs in the Twitter dark.

-- compiled by Mia Rabson, MaryAgnes Welch

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition March 26, 2011 A6