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Province ranks highest for fear of crime

Most Canadians see reduction -- not Manitobans

By: Mia Rabson

Posted: 01/28/2012 1:00 AM | Comments: 0 (including replies) | Last Modified: 01/28/2012 1:26 PM | Updates

OTTAWA -- Canadians are more likely to believe crime is going down now than they were a year ago, a new poll reveals.

Except if they live in Manitoba.

By the numbers

PERCENTAGE of people who believe crime is getting worse, 2011 (2010)

Canada 46% (52%)

B.C. 46% (55%)

Alberta 50% (69%)

Saskatchewan 53% (63%)

Manitoba 69% (63%)

Ontario 43% (50%)

Quebec 41% (41%)

Atlantic 60% (59%)

-- Environics 2011 Focus Canada Survey

Poll was conducted of 1,500 Canadians, by telephone, between Nov. 21 and Dec. 14, 2011. It is considered accurate within 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20,

While fewer than half of Canadians believe crime is getting worse, more than two-thirds of Manitobans believe it is. That is by far the highest number of any province. Manitoba is also the only province to show a significant increase in the number of people who think crime is getting worse. Almost every other province showed a decrease in that number.

The poll is from Environics' 2011 Focus Canada survey.

Keith Neuman, executive director of Environics, said the Manitoba numbers still stand out even taking into account the higher margin of error in the provincial breakdowns.

"The difference is significant enough to be noteworthy," said Neumann.

Nationally, Canadians are evenly split on the question, with 46 per cent thinking crime is worse and 46 per cent thinking it's getting better. A year ago, 52 per cent of Canadians thought crime was getting worse and 37 per cent thought it was getting better.

The national change is noteworthy because crime statistics have for years suggested crime rates are falling but public perception did not match.

In 2010, the latest year for which Statistics Canada has figures available, the national homicide rate fell to its lowest point since 1966. The same year, the number of violent crimes reported to police fell for the fourth consecutive year and the severity of the crimes committed also declined.

Curtis Brown, of Probe Research in Manitoba, said a December survey suggested, in large part, the fear of crime in Manitoba is driven by Winnipeg. In December, 62 per cent of Winnipeg respondents to a Probe survey cited crime as their No. 1 issue compared to 12 per cent who cited it outside of Winnipeg. Brown said Winnipeg's relatively high crime rate and the prominence crime stories receive in the media are likely behind it.

In 2010, Manitoba was among the provinces that saw a decline in the homicide rate, however the province still had the highest homicide rate among the provinces and a rate more than double the national average.

And in 2011, Winnipeg recorded 39 homicides, five more than the previous high of 34 in 2004.

Public Safety Minister Vic Toews said the Environics survey results are consistent with the Harper government's crime strategy.

"I'm glad that people are beginning to feel safer. That's exactly what we want to see. But that doesn't mean that we should in any way take our foot off the gas. It's a lot like saying to a patient who's been taking a course of medicine that, 'Gee, you're feeling better now. Get off the medicine.' You keep on with the medicine until the problem is in fact cured."

The survey shows Canadians widely back the Conservatives' omnibus crime bill that adds new mandatory minimums for certain violent and drug crimes, targets repeat young offenders with stiffer penalties and eliminates house arrest for certain crimes. Nearly two-thirds of Canadians in almost every province strongly or somewhat support the bill.

However, Canadians are also more likely to want Canada to spend available money on crime prevention rather than on police and jails.

Nationally, 63 per cent of Canadians prefer to spend money on prevention compared to 31 per cent who want it spent on law enforcement and jails. In Manitoba, 56 per cent back prevention while 36 per cent back law enforcement as the better spending choice.

-- with files from Bruce Owen

mia.rabson@freepress.mb.ca

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition January 28, 2012 A4

History

Updated on Saturday, January 28, 2012 at 1:26 PM CST: corrected sentence to read: "And in 2011, Winnipeg recorded 39 homicides, four more than the previous high of 34 in 2004."

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