Seeking shelter from the storm

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Roseau River residents like Nadine Shingoose and her children arrive at the Delta Hotel in Winnipeg. (BORIS MINKEVICH / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS)

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Jamie Goossen( left)and Brian Isaac pitchinonsandbag duty in St.Norbert. (MIKE DEAL /WINNIPEG FREE PRESS)

In weather parlance, it's a perfect storm. But for those living along the Red River, there is nothing perfect about the fallout from runoff from the snow and rain heading their way.

Ice jams have choked the rising Red, leading to flash floods just north of Winnipeg and panic for homeowners. At the south end of the city, sandbagging efforts are growing.

And further up the Red River Valley, the coming threat has already cleared out its first community, as those from Roseau River First Nation were forced to higher ground at a downtown Winnipeg hotel Thursday night.

While Manitobans cast a nervous eye to the drama being played out in Fargo, they can take some comfort from the fact the latest provincial flood forecast on Thursday didn't contain any more bad news -- and that the Canadian military is now standing by to help.

Water threatens Roseau

The first residents of Roseau River First Nation were sent to Winnipeg Thursday night as rising waters threatened the road into the reserve.

Two busloads of evacuees trudged into the downtown Delta Hotel carrying suitcases and baby supplies. They included pregnant women, elderly people and families with little kids.

Donovan Nelson and Nadine Shingoose had 90 minutes' notice to grab their seven kids aged two weeks to seven years, and get their bags to the bus.

"The hydro's been going off and on the last couple of days," said Nelson, who was helping work the pumps inside Roseau River's ring dike. "We got the water out once, and it snowed again."

No one told the families who'll be paying for their stay, or how the older kids will be schooled, he said -- but the kids were happy to hear the hotel had a pool.

"I imagine we'll be here for a month," said Kevin Laroque, who has five kids.

The reserve health authority made the decision to start sending elders and families with small children to higher ground even though there are still questions about who is going to pay for the evacuation. Roseau River is expected to be completely cut off by the flood.

Terry Nelson, who was the chief at Roseau until a recent electoral dispute left the community without a leader, said talks are continuing with Indian and Northern Affairs Canada but he said he was told Ottawa won't make a decision on any flood disaster assistance for Roseau until after April 1.

Military at the ready

The Canadian military is prepared to help Winnipeg battle the rising Red once again.

Public Safety Minister Peter Van Loan said Thursday the military is "on standby ready to provide resources if need be."

During the 1997 flood, the military sent more than 8,500 personnel to Manitoba to help with everything from sandbagging and diking to evacuations and medical assistance. It was the largest deployment of Canadian troops since the Korean War.

Van Loan said the federal government is in constant contact with Manitoba emergency officials.

He said Ottawa is exploring what assistance can be provided through emergency preparedness programs, and said disaster financial assistance will kick in automatically.

Federal disaster money becomes available once damage costs exceed about $1.2 million in Manitoba. Disaster costs include evacuation operations, restoring public works and infrastructure and replacing or repairing basic, essential personal property of individuals, small businesses and farmsteads.

City folk bolster defences

Sporadic sandbagging continued Thursday in Winnipeg as homeowners eyed the Red River for ice jams and snow plows hit the streets.

Water closed Kingston Row at the St. Vital Bridge underpass, and in North Kildonan, Bonner Avenue between Henderson Highway and Rothesay Street was impassable because Bunns Creek overflowed its banks.

As the river rises, sandbagging and clay dike construction continued at many of the 70 homes at risk.

St. Norbert Coun. Justin Swandel said eight to 10 homes in his south Winnipeg ward are at risk, most on Turnbull Drive. Most have been sandbagged or have new temporary clay dikes and all appeared stable Thursday. The worry, though, is that rising water will dislodge ice packs and create a jam in the city that could back up water over low-lying homes.

About 20 centimetres of snow has fallen in Winnipeg so far this week, adding to flood fears.

Cold weather has plus side

Unseasonably cold temperatures expected over the next several days could be an important ally in minimizing flooding along the Red River in Manitoba, the province's senior flood forecaster said Thursday.

Alf Warkentin said while cold weather has increased the threat of ice jams, it is also slowing the flow of water headed towards the city.

This week's snowstorm wasn't welcome, but the cold weather is now "offsetting" its effects, Warkentin said. "The cold weather could be an ally in this case."

Updated crest forecasts for the Red River will be updated today. However, officials said Thursday the predicted crests are unlikely to be raised due to this week's snowfall.

More important, they said, will be whether large ice jams continue to occur on the Red and the timing of the snow melt.

"It's possible that our tributaries will resurge at the worst time -- when the U.S. water comes in," Warkentin said.

Despite extensive ice-cutting and breaking, provincial officials said there's a possibility that further ice jams will develop between Selkirk and Breezy Point.

Clear and cold weather is forecast for Winnipeg for the next several days, extending through Monday.

Today, Premier Gary Doer, Opposition Leader Hugh McFadyen and Vic Toews, Manitoba's senior federal cabinet minister, will tour the flood zone by helicopter.

-- Nick Martin, Mia Rabson, Larry Kusch, Mary Agnes Welch

Flood update: what provincial flood fighters say

Up to 20 centimetres of snow had fallen by Thursday afternoon in eastern portions of the Red River watershed over the past couple of days, with 10 cm falling on western portions.

The river level in downtown Winnipeg at 9 a.m. Thursday was 18.7 feet before falling slightly when the ice jam at St. Andrews broke. A level of 18 feet is considered flood stage.

The province continues to expect a crest in Winnipeg of 19 to 20.5 feet. This could occur in the next few days if the river ice does not move.

Where feasible, the Amphibex icebreaker will be used to break up any city ice jams that occur, likely around bridges. The other Amphibex machine continues to break ice at Sugar Island, north of Selkirk, to alleviate future ice jams there.

Based on forecasts that this year's flood will reach 1979 levels, evacuations are underway at Roseau River First Nation (pop. 800) and are expected for Riverside (pop. 55). Partial closures will affect 11 other communities south of the city.

Water is flowing over the entrance lip into the floodway, but the gates won't be raised until the river ice clears. That could be as soon as the next couple of days.

Two survey crews are measuring water levels every two hours at about a dozen points along the Red to help provincial officials target vulnerable communities.

Updated crest forecasts for the Red River will be released today.

Has your home taken on water? Go to www.manitobaemo.ca for advice.

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition March 27, 2009 A3