The Conservatives could be the big winners -- or losers -- in a dramatic rejigging of the province's ridings that's now underway.
The province's non-partisan Electoral Boundaries Commission is holed up right now trying to redraw the borders of the 57 ridings to reflect big population bumps in some parts of the province and an exodus of voters in others.
It's an exercise that happens every decade, and it could radically reshape the political landscape, especially in Winnipeg's southern suburbs and in southeastern Manitoba around Steinbach and Morden-Winkler. It could help the Tories regain a toe-hold in Winnipeg, and it could even pit sitting MLAs against each other in the next election, slated for June 14, 2011.
"There's going to be some very significant changes," NDP provincial secretary Sonia Kowalewich said. "We're anxious to see the new maps."
There are 13 ridings that need to be rejigged, which leads to a domino effect that could impact many more ridings.
The epicentre of changes to Winnipeg's southern ridings will be Fort Whyte, the riding that belongs to Tory Leader Hugh McFadyen. It's the most dramatically overpopulated riding in the province, with nearly double the voters of some other ridings. Plus, it includes Waverley West, the huge suburb sprouting up south of Bishop Grandin Boulevard.
Fort Whyte could get split in two or its boundaries could shrink dramatically, which could impact a half-dozen neighbouring constituencies.
Most south Winnipeg ridings are held by the NDP, inroads the party made into traditionally Tory strongholds in the last couple of elections. If the Tories are to ever win government, they'll need to steal back ridings such as Southdale, Seine River and St. Vital -- all ridings that the commission might change.
NDP strongholds in the core and in north Winnipeg haven't seen much population change in the last decade and won't likely see many boundary tweaks, if any.
Elections Manitoba spokeswoman Mary Skanderbeg said a draft of the new boundaries map will be unveiled in June, with public hearings starting in September. The new map is due at the end of the year.
The commission is comprised of mostly academics and is chaired by Chief Justice Richard Scott. It includes Chief Electoral Officer Richard Balasko, University of Manitoba Dean of Arts Richard Sigurdson and the heads of Brandon University and the University College of the North.
They'll be using 2006 census data to rejig the boundaries and their task is complicated by the need to ensure any new borders follow rivers, major thoroughfares and the borders of rural municipalities as closely as possible.
It's unlikely that the province will add any more seats to its compliment of 57 even though the seat count hasn't increased in nearly 60 years. Adding more seats would require new legislation.
And, Skanderbeg said it's unlikely the commission will steal a seat from rural Manitoba to add it to Winnipeg's 31 seats, largely because there's been huge population growth in southern Manitoba in ridings such as Steinbach and Pembina.
The last boundary change happened in 1998, just a year before the election that catapulted the NDP to power under Gary Doer.
This time, the new boundaries wouldn't kick in until the next election, which gives each party two years to reorganize riding associations and get to know any new constituencies.
maryagnes.welch@freepress.mb.ca
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