Winnipeg's political leaders have just over a month to decide whether rapid transit will be part of the city's future.
Mayor Sam Katz has given himself a July 18 deadline to announce how he and Premier Gary Doer plan to spend $17.9 million worth of federal transportation dollars.
In March, Ottawa handed Manitoba the $17.9-million kitty with no strings attached, provided the cash gets spent on alternative forms of transportation.
Ever since, the mayor and the premier have been talking behind closed doors about the cash, which could be used to upgrade Winnipeg Transit, build new bicycle and walking paths -- or start building the southwest Winnipeg bus rapid transit corridor that has been the biggest albatross around Katz's neck since he was first elected four years ago.
Winnipeggers who pay attention to transit know the back-story: One of Katz's first acts as mayor was cancelling a BRT corridor and persuading the federal Liberals to divert $43 million of gasoline-tax money to community centres.
Late in 2004, Katz placed Transcona Coun. Russ Wyatt in charge of a rapid transit task force that eventually wound up recommending the creation of -- wait for it -- a bus rapid transit corridor.
But the idea has languished on the back burner at city hall, revived only by the rising price of oil and subsequent rising interest in alternative modes of transportation on the part of politicians and voters alike. City council has upped spending on bike trails from $200,000 in 2006 to $3.2 million this year and has also started socking away $2.7 million toward a rapid-transit system.
On Broadway, Doer has also been lukewarm to the notion of public transit. But that was before the province pledged to meet the original Kyoto targets by cutting Manitoba's greenhouse gas emissions by three megatonnes over the next four years.
Doer now acknowledges rapid transit could help catapult Manitoba toward Kyoto compliance, but remains cagey about his priority list for the federal transit cash.
"Transit itself, a person who takes the car too much, is helpful toward the Kyoto target," said Doer, admitting only that the city and province would like to spend the federal kitty on a combination of big-ticket items and smaller projects.
It's unclear whether the province will add more of its own cash to the $17.9 million pledged by Ottawa. But even if Doer doubles up on the federal contribution, $35.8 million won't buy Winnipeg a BRT corridor.
The first leg of a busway from downtown to Jubilee Avenue will cost an estimated $70 million. The city would have to borrow millions to pay for the entire line, and borrowing isn't a popular practice at city hall these days.
"A couple of decades ago, the city got into trouble because all we did was borrow money. The smartest thing we did was stop and we've reduced our debt significantly. There is more money available to us today as a result of the fact we aren't servicing major debt," Katz said.
The mayor said it's possible Winnipeg could borrow money to pay for "a project that is going to have a phenomenal economic, positive impact" on the city, but would not say whether rapid transit would constitute such a project.
However, he did entertain the possibility of a new floodway-like authority to oversee transit in Winnipeg and the surrounding capital region, as the city's transportation needs are intertwined with those of communities such as Selkirk, St. Andrews and East St. Paul.
The bottom line is that Katz and Doer really have only two choices: Use all or part of the federal transportation cash as seed money for some form of big, bold transit initiative, or divide the kitty into smaller pots of money and spend it on a variety of less ambitious projects.
Both strategies have pros and cons, as the mayor and premier must balance fiscal conservatism, environmentalism and even parochial ward and riding concerns.
Their decision is coming within 33 days, when city council shuts down for the summer. In the meantime, here's what Katz and Doer are considering:
BUS RAPID TRANSIT
The plan: A dedicated bus corridor from downtown Winnipeg to the University of Manitoba, roughly parallel to Pembina Highway.
The price tag: Approximately $70 million to build one leg of the corridor, from downtown to Jubilee Avenue. Likely more than $150 million to build the entire line.
Pros: Both the Rapid Transit Task Force (2005) and Direction To The Future (2000) identified the southwest bus corridor as Winnipeg's No. 1 transit priority, given the volume of vehicle and bus traffic along Pembina Highway. A bike path would be built alongside the busway. And if the corridor goes all the way to the U of M, a spur line to Waverley West could take some of the transportation pressure off Kenaston Boulevard.
Cons: Even if the province matches the federal money, Winnipeg would still have to borrow to complete the line. People who don't live in southwest Winnipeg may resent the spending. And critics will argue the line will only improve transit service, not increase the number of people who use public transit.
CONVENTIONAL TRANSIT
The plan: Upgrade existing Winnipeg Transit infrastructure by buying more buses, installing user-friendly transit technology and making on-street improvements such as more diamond lanes and better stations -- all of which are already part of a six-year city plan that's taking too long to implement.
The price tag: As much or as little as the city and province want to spend, on top of the $142-million Winnipeg Transit upgrade announced in 2006.
Pros: It's easy to top up or augment a Winnipeg Transit upgrade that's already in progress, and no borrowing is required.
Cons: Critics will argue the city and province squandered an opportunity to do something much more bold with the $17.9-million gift from the federal government.
BIKE TRAILS
The plan: More bicycle and pedestrian commuter paths in Winnipeg.
The price tag: Again, as much or as little as the Doer and Katz want to spend, on top of the city's $3.2-million annual budget for active-transportation corridors.
Pros: Politicians get a lot of bang for their infrastructure buck when they build bike trails, which are relatively cheap, compared to roads and bridges. Commuter trails also reduce congestion on roads, assuming they're built in the right place. And they satisfy a trio of converging concerns: the rising price of gas, the health benefits of self-propelled commuting and the environmental benefits of leaving cars at home.
Cons: Transit advocates will revolt if the city and province blow the entire $17.9-million transportation kitty on bike trails, given the opportunity to use the cash as seed money for something bigger and bolder. As well, only a minority of Winnipeg commuters walk or bike to work or school -- and people with mobility issues will benefit little from trail upgrades.
LIGHT RAIL TRANSIT
The plan: A light-rail corridor from downtown Winnipeg to the University of Manitoba.
The price tag: Unknown, but assumed to be upwards of $500 million.
Pros: Trains are sexier than bus corridors, and could attract more riders. Mayor Sam Katz likes the idea of LRT, although he does not believe Winnipeg can afford it. However, busways can always be converted to LRT lines.
Cons: Given the price and the lack of density in Winnipeg, nobody in power is seriously considering this option.
bartley.kives@freepress.mb.ca
-- With files from Mary Agnes Welch
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