THE national carbon tax touted by the federal Liberals could cost the average Manitoba homeowner an extra $300 a year in heating costs.
But that's nothing compared to how much more expensive natural gas is expected to get this winter anyway. And it's not a huge hit compared to provinces such as Ontario and Alberta, which are powered by coal.
And several environmentalists estimate that Manitoba might actually come out on top, saving more from the low- and middle-bracket income- tax cuts the Liberals are promising than Manitobans will spend on a carbon tax.
Liberal Leader St ©phane Dion has pinned his political future on his carbon tax -- $10 on every tonne of emissions from fossil fuels such as natural gas, propane, home heating oil and coal. That tax rises to $40 over four years, and it mirrors a carbon tax introduced in British Columbia last week that hiked the price of gasoline by about two cents, causing a little Canada Day outrage.
But Dion's tax wouldn't apply to gasoline, which is already taxed.
And clean hydro power, the kind Manitoba enjoys, isn't among the fuels on Dion's hit list, so many businesses wouldn't see a hike in costs they'd likely pass on to consumers. There's virtually no coal used in Manitoba, and what little exists is already on the way out, so Dion's tax wouldn't cause any pain there either.
The pain would come on monthly home heating bills for the thousands of Manitobans, many of them urbanites, who heat with natural gas.
The average Manitoban gets an annual gas bill of about $1,300. If natural gas is taxed at an extra two cents per gigajoule after the four-year phase-in, that would cost the average Manitoba household about $300 more a year.
Manitoba's Public Utilities Board recently warned that natural-gas costs this winter will likely be 30 per cent higher than last winter anyway.
A carbon tax is a simple and accountable way to put a price on carbon, and Manitobans would probably come out on top, given their relatively low emissions per capita, said Steve Barg, an associate with the International Institute for Sustainable Development.
But the Doer government has been lukewarm at best to the idea, preferring to hang its environmental hat on a cap-and-trade system.
Premier Gary Doer wouldn't comment for this story, and staff said they haven't done much research on Dion's idea, as it's only an opposition proposal that may never become government policy.
John Clarkson, Manitoba's deputy minister for Science, Technology, Energy and Mines, said research shows that punitive approaches such as fines and taxes don't work -- at least not quickly. If they did, the skyrocketing cost of gasoline would have spurred people to ditch their cars or drive less. Despite lots of complaining, people are still driving as much as they always have because cities, daily family routines and the economy are built around vehicles.
"There's been a lot of talk about it, and it might happen in the long run, but it hasn't happened yet," said Clarkson.
maryagnes.welch@freepress.mb.ca
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