The Free Press has assembled a panel of insiders from the Tories, Liberals and NDP who have helped run campaigns and are political animals through and through. Each week, they will bring their analysis of the electoral week that was. We’ll refer to them by code name in order to protect their identity so they can give you the frankest assessment of their team’s performance as well as their foes’.
Big Blue: Conservative insider
Colour Commentary:
Stéphane Dion
The dirtiest of dirty secrets in politics is that when a party really wants to get rid of its own leader, it takes the job into its own hands.
It is not that the party wants to self-destruct. Rather, it is just hurrying the process of re-building by getting rid of its weakest link at its earliest opportunity. Pity poor Stéphane Dion because this election appears to be nothing more than an inside set-up for his demise.
Generally, the quiet but oh-so-strategic internal knifing starts with the disappearance or acquiescence of A Team advisers and operatives -- the backroom 'boys' seasoned in the ways of winning elections. Replaced by emotional Dion loyalists all too anxious to make their mark by profiling 'their guy', the fix is in for disaster.
How else can you explain the brain trust of Canada's natural governing party allowing the launch of a leader-driven campaign featuring a walking communications disaster. Even worse is the decision to attempt to sell the unsellable -- a complex green plan that makes little economic or common sense to the average voter.
Is the Liberal party making a huge sacrifice? Indeed, but no doubt it believes it is better to quickly lose a rotten limb than to allow the decay to eat through and destroy what is still the most enduring political brand in the country. Future Liberal leadership contenders, start your engines. Oops, Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff in a so-called show of team support, already have!
Play of the Week:
Good on you, Stephen Harper! In delivering maternity benefits for small business owners -- the vast majority women -- you have corrected a historic wrong while warming up yet another pool of non-traditional Conservative vote.
Momentum:
Stumbling, insensitive candidates aside, Harper wins again. Yes, he continues to deal with distractions from within his own camp but, with a bevy of Mounties at his side, they continue to protect their man on his mission.
True Grit: Liberal Insider
Colour Commentary:
During Stephen Harper's short reign he's faced unyielding criticism from his political opponents and the media alike over his iron-fisted, tightly scripted, tyrannical approach to message management.
Well can you blame him for being such a control freak? Look what happens when he relaxes the gag order and lets other members of the team speak.
Indeed, with respect to Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz's comments, it's tough to know what Harper would be more ticked off about: Ritz's missing compassion for the families affected by the listeriosis outbreak? Or his lack of appreciation for the consequences related to shooting one's mouth off in front of a room full of public servants.
Either way, loose lips have knocked Harper's tax credit crusade off message for the second week in a row -- which surely has left Captain Cashmere tearing at his sweater vest.
By contrast, Stéphane Dion has been on message since Day 1. Trouble is, voters aren't listening. Instead they're thinking about the economy, inflation, and job security. It doesn't matter that Dion's Green Shift is as much about income tax cuts as it is about reducing greenhouse gas emissions. If voters have chosen to tune the Green Shift out then it's time for the Liberal leader to do the same.
Indeed, why Dion has so far mostly resisted the urge to tout the Liberal economic record is something only he and his advisers understand. Last I checked, the Chrétien-Martin Liberal governments balanced more consecutive budgets -- eight -- than any government since Confederation.
The Liberals need to convince voters they can competently, and with sincerity, manage the economy. And the sooner, the better.
Play of the Week:
The launch of slick NDP attack ads sure brought Harper's blue sweater-wearing alter ego down to earth. Wish we'd done it first.
Momentum: NDP
Orange Crush: NDP Insider
Colour Commentary:
It doesn't matter how high tech or impressive a political party's war room is, sometimes real life just plain gets in the way. In week two, it was the economy that waylaid even the best plans.
So how have our political leaders played the cards they've been dealt? Conservative boss Stephen Harper is holding 'em, insisting things are just fine. Uh huh. When soft rock DJs are chatting about their tanking RRSPs instead of spinning Steely Dan, Harper should take a long look at his game plan.
Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion has decided to sorta, kinda, fold 'em. He's edged away from the Green Shift gobbledygook that has all the appeal of a root canal and is trying to talk economy. He's got strong speaking points as the Liberal fiscal legacy (lower taxes, reduced debt load, stronger CPP, bountiful surpluses) is quite considerable. But Dion's message -- "I'm kinder, gentler than Mr. Mean and can also do math!" -- has yet to catch fire.
The NDP played their cards smartly. Leader Jack Layton talked about the economy, job losses, rising gas prices and the issues that matter to ordinary folks. They made bread-and-butter announcements (child care funding, worker training) that provide comfort in uncertain times. The Greens, well... promising tax increases is a dud of a trump card at any time.
Play of the Week:
There were no royal flushes here. Majority territory remains on the horizon for Harper, but there's a sense the Death Star is stalling. Can the Conservatives fire up the battleship and regain lost ground? It will also be interesting to watch how the Grits play the green card going forward. Any strategist worth a cup of coffee knows environmental issues often poll high, but rarely (if ever) translate into serious votes.
Momentum: Slight edge to NDP
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