Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION

U of M anticipates higher enrolment with big Grade 12 class

THE largest Grade 12 class in a decade has officials at the University of Manitoba doing cartwheels.

Undergraduate enrolment this fall is expected to grow by at least two per cent, director of enrolment services Jeff Adams said Tuesday.

"We're definitely plateauing somewhat," said a delighted Adams, who carefully monitors the department of education's enrolment reports.

A two per cent increase would equal about 550 additional students at the U of M.

"We're projecting a two per cent increase in undergraduate credit hours," he said. "One of the factors is the high number of Grade 12 students coming out."

Credit hours is the technical term for the number of courses students take, the basis on which tuition fees are charged.

There were more students in Grade 12 this past school year than in any year in the past decade -- 18,393 in total, 16,919 of whom were in the public school system.

That's 443 more students than the year before, 1,000 more than in 2009, and 1,300 more than in mid-decade.

And Manitoba's graduation rate has steadily improved, says the department of education, to 83.5 per cent in June 2011 compared with 71.1 per cent in June 2002.

"It's encouraging if there's more students graduating from high school," Adams said.

He said the U of M not only sees an increase in new students, but forecasts a higher retention rate and fewer dropouts.

"We've been putting programs in place to ensure students will be supported through to graduation," he said.

The U of M's annual report showed growth this past year in graduate students, international students and self-identified aboriginal students.

Attracting indigenous students "is a major priority," said Adams.

Not coincidentally, in the fall of 2005, there were about 1,600 more students in Grade 6 than in Grade 1. That wave is now moving on from high school, and lower numbers in younger grades suggest a drop-off is on the horizon.

Immigration has offset a declining birth rate, with Manitoba showing a net increase in enrolment in the past two years after 16 years of decline.

"We constantly monitor the demographics," Adams said.

It is difficult to pinpoint the stages of kindergarten to Grade 12 education immigration has affected, but the provincial enrolment report suggests new students have been spread throughout the school system.

Enrolment this year in each of grades 1 through 6 was up by 200 to 300 students over 2009-10.

Meanwhile, University of Winnipeg officials said enrolment is running six per cent ahead of what it was on July 3, 2011, but they're only about one-quarter of the way through the registration process and aren't predicting final numbers yet.

nick.martin@freepress.mb.ca

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition July 4, 2012 A3

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