July 28, 2015


Point of View

Manitoba's demographic and labour market trends to 2020

Manitoba Population: It is projected that Manitoba will have 1,385,300 residents as of July 1, 2020, an increase of 9.3% over Statistics Canada's estimate for 2012. 

Over the eight years, Manitoba's population is projected to increase by an average of 14,800 people annually, yielding an average annual growth rate of 1.1%. This compares to a 1.0% average annual growth rate over the previous eight year period, from 2004 to 2012.

Over the 2013 to 2020 period, expected total net migration to Manitoba is 66,500 persons. This is made up of a net inflow of 88,000 international migrants, an outflow of 29,500 persons to other provinces, and 8,000 additional non-permanent residents. Natural increase is expected to add 53,000 persons to the population.
Manitoba’s median age -- the age at which half the population is older and half is younger -- is
projected to be 37.8 years as of July 1, 2020. That's 0.2 years higher than 2012 estimates.

Right now the most populated ages are the 22-year-olds and 51-year old.  By 2020, the largest group will be 30-year-olds.
The 55 to 81 age group is expected to show the largest gain, increasing by 65,700 individuals. The 24 to 45 age group is also projected to have strong gains, with a total increase of 46,700 people. 

Two age groups are anticipated to record population declines over the eight years. The 46 to 54 age group is projected to decrease by 19,800 people, while the 16 to 23 age group is expected decline by 6,400 individuals.
Overall, it is expected that the rate will increase slightly from 69.1% in 2012 to 69.5% in 2020.
The labour force grew by 8.9% from 2004 to 2012 and is expected to grow by 9.2% in 2020. This growth means, Manitoba will be more than 80% of the way to the aspiration goal, stated in the November 19, 2012 Speech from the Throne, of adding 75,000 more workers to the labour force by 2020.
Based on population projections, the labour force of Manitoba is projected to see an average annual growth rate of 1.1%. 

Manitoba’s labour force is expected to have a higher average annual growth rate over the first four years of the projection, at 1.3%, but will then drop to 0.9% for the following four years. This drop is likely due to the population proportion increasing in older age groups with lower labour force participation rates.
Manitoba’s labour force demand (measured by employment plus normal level of unemployment) is expected to
grow by an estimated 9.7%, averaging 1.2% each year.  That growth is expected to be strongest in the years two through four, then taper off.
This expansion demand of 64,800, coupled with a replacement demand of 121,400 positions due to retirements (99,500) and deaths (21,900), would result in 186,200 job openings created from 2013 to 2020.
The labour force is estimated to lose approximately 15,000 workers per year because of retirements and deaths. As a result, a steady growth in net in-migration over the period and a bulge of net other mobility over the middle years of the outlook will be required to meet job opening requirements.
Growth in the demand for workers is expected to outpace growth in the supply of workers, particularly in the middle of the forecast period. 

The estimated worker shortage and labour market tightness would substantially increase if the immigration growth targets Manitoba has set are not realized, or if new entrants or other mobility workers are not available in the local labour market.
So which occupations will see job openings, and why? For all of the occupations, replacement demand is more prominent than expansion demand over the forecast period. Management occupations have the highest percent of replacement demand at 78%, while Health occupations have the lowest at 53%.
How should workers of the future prepare for those jobs?  Most will require some post-secondary education or training, such as a college or trade certificate or a university degree.
Manitoba Population: It is projected that Manitoba will have 1,385,300 residents as of July 1, 2020, an increase of 9.3% over Statistics Canada's estimate for 2012. Over the eight years, Manitoba's population is projected to increase by an average of 14,800 people annually, yielding an average annual growth rate of 1.1%. This compares to a 1.0% average annual growth rate over the previous eight year period, from 2004 to 2012. Over the 2013 to 2020 period, expected total net migration to Manitoba is 66,500 persons. This is made up of a net inflow of 88,000 international migrants, an outflow of 29,500 persons to other provinces, and 8,000 additional non-permanent residents. Natural increase is expected to add 53,000 persons to the population. -
Manitoba’s median age -- the age at which half the population is older and half is younger -- is projected to be 37.8 years as of July 1, 2020. That's 0.2 years higher than 2012 estimates. Right now the most populated ages are the 22-year-olds and 51-year old. By 2020, the largest group will be 30-year-olds. -
The 55 to 81 age group is expected to show the largest gain, increasing by 65,700 individuals. The 24 to 45 age group is also projected to have strong gains, with a total increase of 46,700 people. Two age groups are anticipated to record population declines over the eight years. The 46 to 54 age group is projected to decrease by 19,800 people, while the 16 to 23 age group is expected decline by 6,400 individuals. -
Overall, it is expected that the rate will increase slightly from 69.1% in 2012 to 69.5% in 2020. -
The labour force grew by 8.9% from 2004 to 2012 and is expected to grow by 9.2% in 2020. This growth means, Manitoba will be more than 80% of the way to the aspiration goal, stated in the November 19, 2012 Speech from the Throne, of adding 75,000 more workers to the labour force by 2020. - Manitoba Statistics Bureau
Based on population projections, the labour force of Manitoba is projected to see an average annual growth rate of 1.1%. Manitoba’s labour force is expected to have a higher average annual growth rate over the first four years of the projection, at 1.3%, but will then drop to 0.9% for the following four years. This drop is likely due to the population proportion increasing in older age groups with lower labour force participation rates. -
Manitoba’s labour force demand (measured by employment plus normal level of unemployment) is expected to grow by an estimated 9.7%, averaging 1.2% each year. That growth is expected to be strongest in the years two through four, then taper off. -
This expansion demand of 64,800, coupled with a replacement demand of 121,400 positions due to retirements (99,500) and deaths (21,900), would result in 186,200 job openings created from 2013 to 2020. -
The labour force is estimated to lose approximately 15,000 workers per year because of retirements and deaths. As a result, a steady growth in net in-migration over the period and a bulge of net other mobility over the middle years of the outlook will be required to meet job opening requirements. -
Growth in the demand for workers is expected to outpace growth in the supply of workers, particularly in the middle of the forecast period. The estimated worker shortage and labour market tightness would substantially increase if the immigration growth targets Manitoba has set are not realized, or if new entrants or other mobility workers are not available in the local labour market. -
So which occupations will see job openings, and why? For all of the occupations, replacement demand is more prominent than expansion demand over the forecast period. Management occupations have the highest percent of replacement demand at 78%, while Health occupations have the lowest at 53%. -
How should workers of the future prepare for those jobs? Most will require some post-secondary education or training, such as a college or trade certificate or a university degree. -

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