12°c Overcast
17°c Mainly cloudy
Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION
Blocs are locked into Syrian positions
TEL AVIV -- The meetings held recently in various cities to discuss the Syrian situation were no more than an exercise in futility.
The meetings have served only the Syrian regime more time to implement its own military solution, which practically meant the continued deaths of hundreds of innocent people every week. After the collapse of a UN peace plan brokered by UN special envoy, Kofi Annan, UN observers sent to Syria to observe the non-existent ceasefire are now confined to their hotels, since it became too dangerous for them to go out and observe the ceasefire.
This came as no surprise. During his one-day trip to Israel last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin did not even try to conceal his hope that, under his leadership, Russia would regain its world prestige from the Soviet era. For him, the card to play is Syria and he did not conceal his hope to be able to play this card.
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak were somewhat surprised by the degree of Putin's determination to keep the Syrian issue at the forefront of his Middle Eastern policy.
"There is no way that you can push the Syrian problem into a dark corner," Putin said.
The Russian president refuses to undertake Bashar Assad's ousting, as many in the U.S. and the western world, want him to do.
Meanwhile, Syria is behaving as though it can continue to defy the entire world. By a presidential decree, Assad appointed a new Syrian government, headed by Riad Hajjab, but he kept the defence, foreign affairs and the interior at the heads of the previous government. Assad added two local opposition leaders to the new team. Both have no public standing but they are known to favour national dialogue and prepare for new elections, with Assad still in power.
In the absence of a credible alternative in sight, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are continuing to finance arms supplied to the rebels through Turkey. As a result, the Free Syrian Army is now better equipped and better supplied but it is still far behind the regular Syrian army. The defection of two Syrian army generals was good for the morale, but it did not alter the balance of power with the regular army. The Syrian army is still better equipped and better trained and still enjoys superiority over the rebels. The same can be said about the defection of one Syrian MiG-21 to Jordan, where the pilot sought and received political asylum. As of now, the Syrian air force is still loyal to Assad and the defection of one pilot does not alter the balance of power in favour of the rebels.
What about Turkey? There was a moment last week when it was thought that Turkey would retaliate for its F4 Phantom jet being downed by the Syrian air defence. The Turkish plane flew at a low altitude and penetrated Syrian air space. There are unconfirmed reports the Turkish plane was trying to test the alertness of the Syrian air defence.
If this was indeed the purpose of the flight, then Turkey failed miserably. Despite the early hour, the Syrian air defence was fully alert.
Then came the usual Turkish threats and warnings for retaliation. These were empty threats. Turkey is a member of NATO and it cannot involve the alliance in a military operation that could become a major conflict. As it happened in earlier cases, Turkey swallowed its pride and did nothing.
So what now? All sides are in a bind. There is no way Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey would stop their aid to the Syrian rebels. Nor can the U.S. and Western Europe change course. At the same time, Russia, Iran and Syria are unlikely to change their position in the near future. Both blocs are locked in a terrible situation. Neither can afford to show weakness. There is a lot at stake. It's not only Syria, it's the entire Persian Gulf area. The sad result is that despite the killings, all sides have no choice but to continue the struggle. And in the meantime, the poor Syrian people will continue to spill their blood, knowing quite well that the price is getting higher and higher.
Samuel Segev is the Winnipeg Free Press Middle East correspondent.
Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition July 4, 2012 A10
More Analysis
- Back to Top
- Return to Analysis
More Analysis
(1 of 8 articles for today)
Will stereotype perceptions of crack cocaine go to pot?
1:00 AM 0Bill Clinton never inhaled; Jack Layton said he never exhaled. Pierre Trudeau is believed to have done it, and so ...
About Samuel Segev
Samuel Segev is the Winnipeg Free Press correspondent in the Middle East. He is based in Tel Aviv.
Poll
Most Popular Analysis
- Ford puts Toronto on the map at last
- Lower drug prices, lower costs, better care?
- 'Fried chicken' is no more a joke than the N-word
- To call 'Cliffy' a character doesn't do him justice
- How to humble wing nuts
- Smart people SLEEP LATE
- When Harper spoke, it was wise to listen
- What is Struthers afraid of?
- Don’t confuse money with quality hospital care
- BlackBerry: off the mat, hitting back
- Ford puts Toronto on the map at last
- BlackBerry: off the mat, hitting back
- What is Struthers afraid of?
- 'Most hated man' in Senate
- Physician networks a way forward for health care
- Can't lose when ends justify means
- Lower drug prices, lower costs, better care?
- Never take candy from a stranger
- How to humble wing nuts
- Smart people SLEEP LATE
- Don, it's not about nakedness
- Speeding fine only half of it
- Ashton might try to get the facts straight
- Canadian to expose alien collaboration with U.S.
- 'Done deal' offends Whiteshell cottagers
- Ford puts Toronto on the map at last
- Smart people SLEEP LATE
- Manitoba could follow B.C. on surrogacy issue
- City council can't decide which bus to ride
- The Angelina Jolie effect
- What is Struthers afraid of?
- Elijah's essence was most easily found in the wilderness
- How to humble wing nuts
- Ford puts Toronto on the map at last
- Lower drug prices, lower costs, better care?
- What is Struthers afraid of?
- How to humble wing nuts
- Bill 18 is perfect example of bad law
- THIS IS NO WAY TO MAKE A POINT!!!
- Harper embraces multilateralism on Arctic issues
- Elijah's essence was most easily found in the wilderness
- Mental health system lacking funds, awareness
- 'Genetic engineered' might save planet
- Housing homeless tackled
- A small but welcome crack in supply management
- 'Done deal' offends Whiteshell cottagers
- Kim Sigurdson It's time for government fish monger to cut bait
- Speeding fine only half of it
- How CBC and others torque ratings
- Where is Canada's strategy to help Ukraine?
- Climate options -- grim, grimmer, grimmest
- Mother Nature springs into action
- Female chiefs needed
- Ashton might try to get the facts straight
- 'Longevity pensions' a promising idea
Ads by Google
You can comment on most stories on winnipegfreepress.com. You can also agree or disagree with other comments. All you need to do is register and/or login and you can join the conversation and give your feedback.
Have Your Say
New to commenting? Check out our Frequently Asked Questions.
The Winnipeg Free Press does not necessarily endorse any of the views posted. By submitting your comment, you agree to our Terms and Conditions. These terms were revised effective April 16, 2010.