Harper mulls cabinet shuffle

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Vic Toews to retire? (CNS THE OTTAWA CITIZEN)

2Except in Ottawa, where the fairest month is primarily a time to speculate about the entrails of power. Who's up, who's down and who's out in the cabinet shuffle expected before the fall session?

This season, as in the past, Prime Minister Stephen Harper is holding his cards preternaturally close to his vest. He is expected, however, to put a new face on the government beginning in early August with a deputy minister shuffle, then continuing in late August or September at the ministerial level.

Conservative insiders expect this remix will be substantial, as the government seeks to re-calibrate following a first year in majority during which it was repeatedly buffeted by controversy, ministerial missteps and scandal. Though the final roster will remain known only to the PM and perhaps his wife and chief of staff until shortly before it is unveiled, a few names recur.

Top dogs:

Jim Flaherty is not expected to budge from Finance, as he remains the mainstay of the Tories' economics team. Three other names top Conservatives' lists of senior ministers who've consistently outperformed and have earned their pick of jobs: Jason Kenney at Immigration, John Baird at Foreign Affairs and James Moore at Heritage.

Any one of these three could be airlifted into Defence to clean house there. The drawback would be that each is helping the government appreciably now in a key portfolio. Kenney is two-thirds of the way through his overhaul of immigration. Baird is hitting his stride as a foreign minister, having spent the better part of the past year outgrowing his old attack-dog persona. Moore has managed to ride herd on the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation without a major upheaval -- for a Conservative, a feat of ineffable dark magic.

Rising stars:

The acknowledged up-and-comers, in no particular order, are Chris Alexander, Ajax-Pickering; Michelle Rempel, Calgary-Centre-North; Candice Hoeppner, Portage-Lisgar; Kellie Leitch, Simcoe-Grey; and James Rajotte, Edmonton-Leduc.

Rempel is bright, a good communicator and holds Jim Prentice's former seat. Leitch, a pediatric surgeon and frequent pinch-hitter in question period, holds the seat once held by Helena Guergis. Rajotte, respected in caucus and chairman of the Commons finance committee, has long been deemed a shoo-in for promotion, but has been held back by the preponderance of strong Alberta MPs, including the PM, already in cabinet.

On the banana peel:

Topping every Tory's hit list is International Co-operation Minister Bev Oda, who deeply embarrassed the government after it was reported she'd stayed at a high-end hotel in London, England, last year, at taxpayers' expense. Though Oda repaid more than $1,000 and apologized in the House of Commons, the taint of her $16 glass of orange juice and other lavish spending remains.

Oda's defenders note she has long had a reputation as an effective manager. Virtually no one, however, expects her to survive this shuffle. Insiders point out that Alexander, a foreign policy expert and well-regarded former Canadian ambassador to Kabul, would be a tidy fit for Oda's job, not only because of his background but because his riding abuts hers in Durham, Ont., fulfilling the need for regional representation.

As for Defence, here comes the broom. Both the minister, Peter MacKay, and the associate minister, Julian Fantino, are expected to move, while Chief of the Defence Staff Walter Natynczyk and deputy minister Robert Fonberg are believed to be considering retirement. Change at the top is deemed in Conservative circles to be both a managerial necessity and poetic justice, due to the disastrous, slow-bleed mess of the F-35 jet fighter procurement.

MacKay, still protected to some degree by his status as former leader of the old Progressive Conservatives, is expected to save face with a move to either Justice or Public Security. Fantino's prospects are less clear. He was brought in last year to ride herd on the generals and sort out procurement and that has gone spectacularly badly. And he is a weak performer in the House. Likeliest candidate for taking on the portfolio? Rob Nicholson at Justice managed to steer through controversial tough-on-crime legislation, Bill C-10, while generally keeping out of trouble. Nicholson, insiders believe, may simply swap jobs with MacKay.

Christian Paradis, the industry minister and putative Quebec lieutenant, is also a shoo-in for new digs. Setting aside the ethics allegations surrounding his office, he is said to be only minimally engaged in the workings of his department. The PM is in a pickle here as he has a pool of only five Quebec MPs from which to draw. Maxime Bernier is bright and long past the indignity of having forgotten secret briefs, or briefings, at a girlfriend's home four years ago. But he is deemed a wild card due to his strong libertarian views. The insider betting, therefore, is that Transport Minister Denis Lebel becomes senior Quebec minister and possibly takes on Industry.

Last on the list of widely expected departures is Vic Toews. The public security minister torpedoed his own online-surveillance bill, C-30, last fall by blurting that anyone opposed to the legislation was in league with child pornographers. The ensuing public backlash, with accompanying Tweeting of details of Toews's divorce by a Grit staffer, was among the ugliest episodes of the majority government's first year. Toews is said to be ready for a move home to the Prairies, where he eventually could be a candidate for a judicial appointment. His replacement, if it isn't Peter MacKay, might well be Hoeppner, also from Manitoba, and for years the spark plug in the government's drive to kill the long-gun registry.

Unknowns:

This leaves question marks over the heads of two important players -- Tony Clement at Treasury Board and Rona Ambrose in Public Works.

Clement is deemed by Tory insiders to have been winged, but not mortally wounded, by the saga of G-20 infrastructure spending in his riding of Parry-Sound Muskoka. He is expected to remain in cabinet, perhaps making a lateral move. Ambrose, likewise, has been on the margins of the F-35 imbroglio, but is not deemed to be wearing any of it personally. She remains one of the government's most credible communicators. Public Works is due for a change in top ministerial staff, sources say, but Ambrose herself is not expected to move, except perhaps laterally.

Michael Den Tandt is a Postmedia News columnist.

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition June 22, 2012 A12