Lopsided prisoner swap vexes

TEL AVIV -- Israel and the Palestinian organization Hamas will execute the first stage of a major prisoner swap today. Israel will release 477 Palestinian terrorists -- 27 of them women -- in return for the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, captive for five years

The swap will take place on Egyptian soil, at the crossing into the Gaza Strip and in co-operation with the Red Cross.

After an initial examination by Israeli military physicians, Shalit will be flown to an Israeli air force base to see his parents, Noam and Aviva Shalit.

Then, in a modest ceremony, the freed Israeli soldier will meet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defence Minister Ehud Barak and chief of general staff, Gen. Benny Gantz. All three were involved in the secret negotiations that led to Shalit's release.

Palestinian prisoners will be welcomed in Gaza by Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyah. In Ramallah, they will be welcomed by Mahmoud Abbas and the West Bank Hamas leader.

While the Israeli public is pleased with the release of Shalit, many are questioning their government's wisdom in agreeing to such a heavy price for the release of a single soldier.

In previous swaps, 60 per cent of the released Palestinians returned -- after a short "convalescence" -- to terrorism. Israelis fear a repeat.

Altogether, Israel agreed to release 1,027 terrorists. Of these, 205 will be deported from the West Bank -- 163 of them to Gaza and the remaining 42 "most dangerous" will be exiled either to Qatar or Turkey. Initially, Hamas wanted them exiled to Syria or Lebanon. Israel refused.

The swap was arranged by Egypt alone. Contrary to some reports, Turkey tried to inject itself into the process, but Egypt was adamant.

The Egyptian intelligence chief told Hamas: Either us or Turkey. Realizing its main base and the only terrestrial exit is the Egyptian Sinai, Hamas had no choice. It accepted Egypt.

Israel welcomed Hamas' choice. Beside its hope to rebuild its strategic relationship with the new Egyptian regime, Israel -- with Egypt -- was able to delete from Hamas lists the most prominent Fatah prisoners. Both Israel and Egypt feared that yielding to doing so would undermine Mahmoud Abbas' authority in the West Bank.

The most prominent Fatah prisoner is Marwan Barghouti -- a former leader of Fatah youth, a trusted aide of Yasser Arafat, the initiator of the second Intifada and the most serious challenger to Abbas.

Releasing Barghouti as Hamas demanded was considered "political death" for Abbas. Israel and Egypt preferred to keep Barghouti in jail, pending future developments.

Israel, however, is seen as the "lesser beneficiary" in this swap. Where, many ask, are the days when Israeli commandos flew to Entebbe, Uganda, to release Israelis who were hijacked by Palestinian terrorists?

Netanyahu's brother, Yoni, was killed at Entebbe. Israel consistently refused to negotiate with terrorists and killed their leaders in their beds in Beirut, Tunis and various European capitals.

Since the 2000 second Intifada, and because of lack of progress in the peace process, Israeli public opinion has begun to crack. Calls to yield to terrorist demands are more frequent.

A similar development occurred in the Palestinian camp. The second Intifadah did not yield the desired results, it only increased the suffering.

Abbas, who succeeded Arafat, together with his prime minister, Salam Fayyad, opted for a negotiated settlement. Due to generous foreign assistance and an improved economic situation, the Palestinians in the West Bank began to build their future state institutions and left terror to Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

The split between Fatah and Hamas became final in June 2007, when Hamas militia took full control of the Gaza Strip, leaving Abbas with questionable control in the West Bank.

This double split in both Israel and among the Palestinians resulted in a surprising phenomenon: In both camps, moderates were weakened and hawkish elements were strengthened.

In Israel at least, all public opinion polls show that Netanyahu is now the single most powerful political figure in Israel, while Hamas influence expands gradually from the Gaza Strip to the West Bank.

Because of this feeling of strength, Netanyahu plans to change the rules of the game with the Palestinian terrorist groups. Shortly before the breakthrough with Shalit, Netanyahu appointed respected former chief justice Meir Shamgar to recommend new policies regarding prisoner swaps. Shamgar has completed his study but it is not yet public. According to sources close to Netanyahu, Shamgar recommended the current method of exchanging hundreds of Palestinians for a few Israelis be dropped and one-for-one be adopted.

It is too soon to speculate whether the Israeli government would agree to tie its hands with such a rigid rule.

Samuel Segev is the Winnipeg Free

Press Middle East correspondent.

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition October 18, 2011 A11