Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION

Putin's intentions most likely 'cold warrior'

  • Print

AMERICA and Russia have an agreement on removing or destroying Syria's extensive collection of chemical weapons. The headline points are that Bashar Assad's regime must submit a full inventory within a week. Should his government find that deadline too exacting, Vladimir Putin's former colleagues in the SVR, the successor organization to the KGB, can probably help out. Then the weapons must be destroyed or removed by mid-2014. If Syria fails to comply with these terms it will face a chapter seven resolution in the UN Security Council which, for those who have not looked at their copy of the UN's charter since 2003, is the one that covers the use of force. Compliance will be in the eye of the beholder.

Whether this agreement works depends largely on what you think Russia's intentions are. Some see the deal as merely a stalling tactic to head off an American military intervention that might have tipped the balance in Syria's civil war against Assad. "It requires a willful suspension of disbelief to see this agreement as anything other than the start of a diplomatic blind alley, and the Obama administration is being led into it by Bashar Assad and Vladimir Putin," say senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham.

Related Items

On this view, which tends to be shared by The Economist, Putin has no intention of doing anything that might weaken the regime his government has propped up with weapons, protected at the UN and which hosts a useful Russian naval base. Any ceasefire, which presumably is a prerequisite for weapons inspections, would probably benefit the regime -- which has bases where its forces can regroup -- more than it helps the rebels. After a pause, during which the threat of an American strike would have receded, Assad could get back to the business of killing the large number of Syrians who do not want him as their president. This is Putin as a cold warrior: anything that is bad for America must be good for Russia.

There is another way to read Russia, put forward by Fiona Hill at the Brookings Institute recently. On this analysis Putin has no great attachment to the Assads or to Syria. What he does not want is busloads of jihadis armed with chemical weapons travelling from Syria via Chechnya to Moscow. Even the Russians can see Assad's lot will not be able to rule a country that resembles Syria after this war, so the important thing is to make sure that who or whatever follows the Assad regime will not have sarin gas on tap. On this, America and Russia can agree.

From the point of view of domestic politics, the agreement makes any vote on the use of force in Syria in the U.S. Congress unlikely for the time being. In order to make the deal stick, Barack Obama's administration will have to be careful not to look like it is in a hurry to launch the Tomahawks. That means trying to get a UN resolution threatening force first. If that fails, then Obama is back to asking Congress for its authorization for a missile strike -- and the question of what happens if the House votes no. Meanwhile, there is a government to fund and a debt ceiling to raise.



Russian President Vladimir Putin is protecting Syria and Iran as if they were satellite states of the former Soviet Union during the Cold War. See analysis here.

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition September 17, 2013 A9

Fact Check

Fact Check

Have you found an error, or know of something we’ve missed in one of our stories?
Please use the form below and let us know.

* Required
  • Please post the headline of the story or the title of the video with the error.

  • Please post exactly what was wrong with the story.

  • Please indicate your source for the correct information.

  • Yes


  • This will only be used to contact you if we have a question about your submission, it will not be used to identify you or be published.

  • Cancel

Having problems with the form?

Contact Us Directly
  • Print

You can comment on most stories on You can also agree or disagree with other comments. All you need to do is be a Winnipeg Free Press print or e-edition subscriber to join the conversation and give your feedback.

You can comment on most stories on You can also agree or disagree with other comments. All you need to do is be a Winnipeg Free Press print or e-edition subscriber to join the conversation and give your feedback.

Have Your Say

New to commenting? Check out our Frequently Asked Questions.

Have Your Say

Comments are open to Winnipeg Free Press print or e-edition subscribers only. why?

Have Your Say

Comments are open to Winnipeg Free Press Subscribers only. why?

The Winnipeg Free Press does not necessarily endorse any of the views posted. By submitting your comment, you agree to our Terms and Conditions. These terms were revised effective April 16, 2010.


Make text: Larger | Smaller


Grandmother of house fire victims shares memories of four boys killed

View more like this

Photo Store Gallery

  • A young goose gobbles up grass at Fort Whyte Alive Monday morning- Young goslings are starting to show the markings of a adult geese-See Bryksa 30 day goose challenge- Day 20– June 11, 2012   (JOE BRYKSA / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS)
  • A golfer looks for his ball in a water trap at John Blumberg Golf Course Friday afternoon as geese and goslings run for safety- See Joe Bryksa’s 30 day goose challenge- Day 24– June 15, 2012   (JOE BRYKSA / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS)

View More Gallery Photos


Do you agree with the decision by the Criminal Conviction Review Board to extend freedoms to Vince Li?

View Results

View Related Story

Ads by Google