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Is Nanos "The Man" again?

By: Dan Lett

Posted: 10/7/2008 12:08 PM | Comments: 0

Well, it didn't take long to figure out who was out in front of the trend.Both Decima/Harris and Ekos reported poll results today that show significant tightening in the federal election campaign. This, almost five days after Nanos first reported the split between the front-running Tories and second-place Liberals had shrunk considerably.Those who found yesterday's blog will remember that last Friday, Nanos shocked everyone with a poll that showed the Tories at 35 and the Libs at 30. That split has held firm now, with the most recent Nanos results at 34-29.A Decima/Harris poll for the Canadian Press released yesterday shows the Tories with 32, the Libs at 25 and the NDP not far behind at 21 per cent.Ekos is out today with a poll that shows the Tories at 33, the Liberals at 26 and the NDP at 19 per cent.The pollsters are finding the largest spread now to be about seven points. That is down in one week from a high spread of 15 points. If your a Tory strategist, you're starting to reach for the parachutes.What happened? A series of dumb-ass blunders (the plagarism debacle chief among them) and a severe economic downturn, combined with the televised debates, seems to have dealt Harper a significant blow. All this makes the prime minister's decision to call an election now seem, well, questionable. How good is October 2009 looking for the Tories?-30-

Dan Lett, Winnipeg Free Press

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About Dan Lett

Dan Lett came to Winnipeg in 1986, less than a year out of journalism school.

Despite the fact that he’s originally from Toronto and has a fatal attraction to the Maple Leafs, Winnipeggers let him stay.

In the following years, he has worked at bureaus covering every level of government – from city hall to the national bureau in Ottawa.

He has had bricks thrown at him in riots following the 1995 Quebec referendum, wrote stories that helped in part to free three wrongly convicted men, met Fidel Castro, interviewed three Philippine presidents, crossed several borders in Africa illegally, chased Somali pirates in a Canadian warship and had several guns pointed at him.

In other words, he’s had every experience a journalist could even hope for. He has also been fortunate enough to be a two-time nominee for a National Newspaper Award, winning in 2003 for investigations.

Other awards include the B’Nai Brith National Human Rights Media Award and nominee for the Michener Award for Meritorious Public Service in Journalism.

Now firmly rooted in Winnipeg, Dan visits Toronto often but no longer pines to live there.

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