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There goes my lunch....

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Losing ground, gaining ground, losing ground again? If you remember that the most important thing is not the number, but the trend, then the Tories look as if they could be backing over the finish line of Tuesday's election.

For more than a week, the Tories gave ground back to the Liberals, narrowing the gap in daily tracking polls. Then, mid last week, they started to rebound. Now, the gap is narrowing again.Both Nanos and Ekos have the Liberals narrowing the gap with the front-running Tories. Harris/Decima, which had been in lockstep with Nanos, is now reflecting a growing Tory lead.If it is narrowing, why? I'll float the idea that making fun of Liberal Leader Stephane Dion's television interview gaffe may have backfired a bit. I'm sure readers will let me know how full of it I am, but I think it's an intriguing theory. The Tories were headed in the right direction right up until they went after Dion, suggesting that his inability to hear a question from a television anchor was a sign of, I don't know, a mental handicap? Yeesh.I'll say it again: Nanos is the leader in trending. Watch where the arrows in the Nanos poll are going, and you have an indication of which party has the momentum. It's going to be quite a night on Tuesday.UPDATE: 23:24 PM CTThe Strategic Counsel endorses the downward trend of the Conservatives.I'm just saying.-30-

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About Dan Lett

Dan Lett came to Winnipeg in 1986, less than a year out of journalism school.

Despite the fact that he’s originally from Toronto and has a fatal attraction to the Maple Leafs, Winnipeggers let him stay.

In the following years, he has worked at bureaus covering every level of government – from city hall to the national bureau in Ottawa.

He has had bricks thrown at him in riots following the 1995 Quebec referendum, wrote stories that helped in part to free three wrongly convicted men, met Fidel Castro, interviewed three Philippine presidents, crossed several borders in Africa illegally, chased Somali pirates in a Canadian warship and had several guns pointed at him.

In other words, he’s had every experience a journalist could even hope for. He has also been fortunate enough to be a two-time nominee for a National Newspaper Award, winning in 2003 for investigations.

Other awards include the B’Nai Brith National Human Rights Media Award and nominee for the Michener Award for Meritorious Public Service in Journalism.

Now firmly rooted in Winnipeg, Dan visits Toronto often but no longer pines to live there.

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