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Welch's Gripe Juice

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Elmwood strategy

By: Mary Agnes Welch

10/03/2009 9:31 AM | Comments: 5

Two smart people on opposite sides of the spectrum have been kibitzing to me lately about the stranglehold Doer's NDP have on the province's political culture, and how that will only change if people THINK it can change.

People assume (and the media perpetuates the idea, say critics) that the NDP are invulnerable, that they'll never get defeated in dozens of ridings, that Doer's personal popularity will never wane and the NDP will emerge unscathed from every mini-scandal like Crocus and Brian Sinclair. Something needs to dent that perception if any opposition party is to have a chance or if the province's stagnant political culture is ever to change.

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That's an interesting idea. Let's apply it to the Elmwood byelection.

Some argue that NDP statesman Bill Blaikie needs to clean up in Elmwood the same way former MLA Jim Maloway always did: 62 per cent of the vote. Anything less means he didn't live up to the hype and exposes the Doer dynasty to rumblings that it's slipping.

If that's the case, it makes sense for the Tories to dial down their campaign. Liberal candidate Regan Wolfrom is running hard -- lots of signs, frequent musings on the Disraeli bridge, some name recognition thanks to the Kelvin fight --early out of the gate.

The Tories don't have a campaign office in the riding and are running a young, bright but unknown candidate and they'll probably come third. Why not run a totally scaled-back campaign that does NOT involve calling the Freep on the weekend to get some press on Disraeli and instead quietly allows support to trickle down to Wolfrom? The Tories aren't going to win anyway, and there may be more long-term value in taking a star NDP candidate down a notch.

The flipside to that argument is that two reasonably strong campaigns needling Blaikie and the NDP for being stale and tired is better than one.

All this is the typical over-analysis that politicos do on every election. It kind of has nothing to do with how real voters feel or what compels them to vote for a candidate -- all 23 of them who will actually vote in any of the gaggle of by-elections now underway.

But I think a lot of people will be eyeballing the margin of victory in Elmwood. If the famed NDP e-day machine doesn't bulldoze over the other two candidates, I wonder whether the slow, centrist momentum that has kept the NDP in power for a decade will start to wane.

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5 Commentscomment icon

Elmwood represented in cabinet would be interesting. And for those who say double-dipping with an MP pension and an MLA salary: When an individual retires from private industry with a pension and then decides to work elsewhere, how is that not the same thing? A job is taken away in private industry. Thus, if Bill earned the pension for many years of service and now wants to continue working provincially, so be it.

4way, politicians are on the same level with me as used car salesman. Bill Blaikie was voted best used car salesmen by a bunch of other used car salesmen, big deal. He is still a used car salesman. Blaikie has hardly held a real job in his life. He claims he is a United Church minister, but never practised . He worked at a north end soup kitchen for a bit, then became a career politician. He wanted to retire, and he should be sent back to retirement by the voters in Elmwood. He did say he didn't really want to run, but Doer asked him. He is not really into it. I am not ready as a taxpayer to give this millionaire even more money each month.

yeah 4way and what did Blakie, let alone the NDP ever do for elmwood? nothing. federally i HATE the liberals. I am a conservative through and through. But come this election i will be voting for Regan Wolfrom, the liberal.

Mr. Blaikie was voted Best Parliamentarian of the year in 2007 BY HIS PEERS. That means that he has the respect of ALL parties. Gee, why wouldn't anyone want someone respectable to represent them at the Provincial level. Elmwood would be well served by such a dedicated and respected individual!

You may be on to something, if conservatives want Blaikie gone , they should loan their vote to Regan Wolfrom. Bill Blaikie has got to go, he doesn't need any more taxpayer money. He has a $3.3 Million pension and will make over $300,000 a year if elected.

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