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Winnipeg Free Press > Opinion > Columnists > Fanning the winds of war

Columnists

Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION

Fanning the winds of war

By: Samuel Segev

Posted: 2/03/2010 1:00 AM | Comments: 18

TEL AVIV -- Last week's trilateral summit in Damascus between Robert Ford, the U.S. ambassador in Iran, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Syrian President Bashar Assad and Lebanon's Hezbollah chief Hassan Nassrallah, had puzzled many western observers.

Upon the appointment of an American ambassador, after an absence of five years, many wanted to believe that Assad would cool his relationship with Iran and would block Iranian arms transfers to Hezbollah. That was naive. Assad has no incentive to weaken his ties to Tehran. On the contrary, he believed his continued ties to Tehran would only increase his value and would increase the American incentives.

Thus, Assad mocked publicly U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's call to weaken his ties to Tehran and he intensified the Iranian arms transfers to Hezbollah.

"It's a bizarre anomaly," Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak told American officials in Washington last Friday. "Lebanon is a member of the UN and is also now a member of the UN Security Council. But Lebanon has also a "private" army, not subordinated to the state and this militia has an arsenal of 45,000 missiles and rockets that can hit targets anywhere in Israel. We cannot accept this. We consider the government of Lebanon and the country's infrastructure as part of the equation with which Israel is confronted."

Barak told his interlocutors that not only have the Iranian arms transfers to Hezbollah increased, but there has also been significant upgrades in the quality of the weapons.

The intensive American and Israeli diplomacy and the counter consultations between Iran, Syria and Hezbollah are all related to the American-European-Israeli effort to impose sanctions on Iran, because of its nuclear ambitions.

After Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sought recently in Moscow a support for sanctions, the former Israeli chief of general staff and minister for strategic affairs, Bugui Yaalon, undertook an unusual trip to Beijing, in an effort to seek Chinese support for the sanctions. He failed. China remains opposed to any sanctions and believes that there is still room for diplomacy.

This diplomatic effort is accompanied by noisy threats and counter-threats.

Israel, Syria and Iran know quite well that none of them wants war. But each of them fears miscalculations and surprise attack. Thus, while the "winds of war" continue to blow intensely, in reality Iran, Syria and Hezbollah are more concerned about the penetration of their security systems by Israel and other intelligence services. To their shock, a former Israeli intelligence source revealed this past weekend that the Nassrallah trip to Damascus was "totally monitored."

He said that Nassrallah advanced his trip by one day, out of fear that his original date was already known. In order not to draw attention, Nassrallah used an old car and he was picked up at the Syrian border by a Syrian intelligence officer who drove him to Assad's palace in Damascus. Nassrallah stayed in the palace for two days. "Israel could have eliminated Nassrallah on his way to Damascus, but it didn't want to," the Israeli former intelligence source said.

No less embarrassing to Syria, Iran and Hezbollah was the sudden revelation that the former Hezbollah military chief Imad Mughniyeh's sudden death in a car bomb in Damascus in June, 2008, was done with Jordanian intelligence assistance.

In a posthumous video message, posted on an al-Qaida website last weekend, a Jordanian-Palestinian double agent who killed seven CIA operatives in Afghanistan a few months ago revealed that Jordan provided the intelligence for Mughniyeh's killing. Until now it was assumed by the international media that the Israeli Mossad was behind Mugniyah's killing and Nassrallah kept promising "revenge" against Israel.

Thus, pending a final decision on the nature of sanctions against Iran, Israel and the radical Arab nations will continue to fan the winds of war and to seek each other's secrets.

Unless, of course, the "war of words" gets out of control and a miscalculated step leads to a war no one wants.

Samuel Segev is the Free Press Middle East correspondent.

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition March 2, 2010 A13

18 Commentscomment icon

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This conversation is getting wildly off base. No one has yet demonstrated a convincing argument based on demonstrable reasons that Iran should be allowed nuclear capabilities.

I know there is Western bias in the media. I know Israel isn't run by saints. I know there is intentional obfuscation regarding Western motivators in Iran. NONE of this justifies the allowances you are proposing.

SPbartlette:

1. If ALL media wasn't reporting that Israel was kidnapping unicorns then your point is valid. However the rest of the worlds' media is reporting what's going on the middle east. Just watch presstv or russia today or pretty much any other non-north american news outlet...While we were distracted with Anna Nicole Smith during the Gaza invasion on CNN, other countries were reporting what was going on. Why didn't CNN report it? Because there was no way they could spin it...Anyone who watched the live coverage will tell you that...

2. The whole point is that Iran has never said they were going to develop weapons and have offered 24/7 UN inspectors. All they want to do is create energy and they have every right to do so.

Did we not learn anything from the whole "weapons of mass destruction" fiasco???? It has NOTHING to do with what they are telling us it has to do with...Are you one of those who thinks Sadam carried out 911 and had nukes pointed at us?? How is this any different?

My point was that these goals are not realistic or demonstrable from the evidence.

Is the US foreign policy biased in favour of Israel? It seems so.
Is Israel armed to the teeth? Absolutely.

Does this justify allowing a totally untrustworthy group of religious fanatics access to devastating weapons that have global consequences? Never in a million years.

Even if Israel's policy was to dominate the middle east, it can't. It doesn't have the manpower or material, which is something you seem hellbound to ignore.

Iran has the manpower, military and international influence to carry out such a threat in a regional theatre, never mind defend itself from another nation. Why do they need another advantage?

Also, you need to work on your argument style - for instance, by your reasoning, this argument is valid:

Israel has kidnapped all the world's unicorns, and the media refuses to report it. Therefore, the media has an inherent anti-unicorn bias.

SPBartlette: your points about Israel/U.S not being to dominate are completely subjective so I gave a subjective answer, same goes for the "popular will" of the people to go to war. What kind of "facts" are you looking for?

Ok, well here's one... Israel occupies .001% of the world's population and yet receives 33% of the U.S's total budget for foreign aid. Don't think that has an effect/influence on U.S foreign policy?

This article seems very general, as if it was pieced together from other articles (BBC? CNN?). Also note the President of Syria is Bashir Al-Assad (not Assad).

As a columnist based in Tel Aviv-Yafo does not situate him in the best position to be a Middle East correspondent. In fact, it precludes it. But does the Free Press need a Middle East correspondent?

You haven't addressed any of my points realistically, and anecdotal evidence about US foreign policy is a red herring at the very least. Leave your rhetoric behind, and come up with some facts.

The Israeli people don't have the will, the same way the American people don't have the will to fight in Iraq or Afghanistan. Do you think all the Americans who can't pay for their houses are happy all their tax dollars are going to fight in Iraq or buy Israel new war planes?? Unfortunately, the will of the people is rarely taken into account. The Israeli gov't on the other hand (like the American gov't) are filled with war mongers who have absolutely no interest in peace which is why the drums of war are beating right now. Read the Israeli gov't documents like "clean break" and tell me they don't have the will to dominate the mid east. Will Israel unilaterally attack Iran? not likely, Israel rarely fights against actual militaries where there's a chance of casualities. They will likely try to get the U.S to do their fighting under the guise of terrorism or whatever....We can only hope that China will stand up and inject some reason into things..

Third strongest by what count? Conventional or strategic?

I think when you reference history to construct your argument for an Imperial Israel, you amy have inadvertantly left your rose coloured glasses on.

Please explain to me how Israel could realistically dominate the middle east? They have strong force projection abilities, but neither the resources or popular will for an extended conflict. You have yet to address this reality.

SBbartlette: I think its more accurate to say the other Arab countries are under continual threat from Israel....How many times has Israel attacked Lebanon, or Gaza and now Iran....

Israel doesn't have the military capacity??? they have the 3rd strongest military in the world thanks to the U.S taxpayers...

re Sentient:

The stated goals of a nation ought to play a part in what technology they are allowed to develop. I see no reason why Iran should be allowed to develop nuclear capacity, until they have a gov't which reflects the wishes of its people, and only if those wishes involved peaceful coexistence with neighbouring states and the disbandment of terrorist organizations which benefit from their 'untouchable' status, courtesy of Chinese oil needs.

Israel has been, and continues to be under direct threat from virtually every other nation in the region, and let's not fool ourselves. The Arab nations don't give one iota of care about the Palestinian people, it's just an excuse to attack a group they see as outsiders.

Let's also be realistic about the possibility of Israel dominating the region - they have neither the military capacity or the popular will to do so. It's realy stretch of the imagination to see their nuclear arms as anything other than the same nuclear umbrella that hangs over the heads of every Western nation.

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