Harper's decision bites him back

There is a point in any battle where you go from being the guy who can take a punch, to the guy who is a glutton for punishment. It appears that Prime Minister Stephen Harper has made that transition.That is not to say the prime minister can't handle himself in a political punch-up. He's a formidable force and he has a reputation for giving as good, usually better, than he gets.

But when it comes to the economy, Harper has an awful habit of letting his guard down. As a result, he's absorbing a lot of punishment.

Last fall, the Tories took quite a beating when they tried to put a happy spin on a spiralling economic disaster. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty tabled an economic statement following the October federal election that insisted that Canada was fine, and that the economic gloom that was sweeping the planet would not take root here.

Many people disagreed with Flaherty, but none was as pointed in his criticism as parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page.

As Flaherty was dismissing economists for not acknowledging the invulnerability of the Canadian economy, Page waded into the battle with dire warnings that clearly suggested the Conservatives did not know what they were talking about. As it turned out, Page was right and Flaherty was wrong. And Page has continued being right despite the better efforts of Conservatives to shut him up.

The Tories have responded by denying Page the resources he was promised when he took the job. Forcing an officer who reports to Parliament to go cap and hand to a committee to plead for more money is extraordinary. But it represents the lengths to which the Tories would go to shut him up.

This is bizarre politics, to be sure. The Conservatives created the parliamentary budget officer in March 2008 as a remedy for the mischievous economic forecasts spun by Liberal finance ministers. For years, the Liberals under-forecast revenues, and over-predicted spending. The result was a string of budgets with higher-than-expected surpluses, which made the Grits look like magicians. But it infuriated the opposition, in large part because it was so successful in convincing the public that Liberals were fiscally responsible. If there is anything a die-hard Tory cannot accept, it is that a Liberal is better with money.

The working theory when Page was appointed was that the budget officer would keep the federal government honest. Unfortunately, almost as soon as Page began his work, the architects of his existence tried to disown him.

The tension between the government and the budget officer peaked recently when Page warned the federal government it was staring down the barrel of a decade of deficits unless the Tories raised taxes and/or cut spending. In the wake of more "don't worry, be happy" statements from Flaherty and Harper, it was a slap in the face.

The prime minister returned fire. In a news conference at the conclusion of the G8 summit in Rome, Harper called Page's analysis "dumb."

"We will not start raising taxes and cutting programs. That's a very dumb policy and, to the extent, frankly, that the parliamentary budget officer suggested it, it's a dumb position," he said.

Insulting Page and starving him of the resources he needs to do the job is an odd bit of logic on the part of the prime minister. He spawned the budget office. Hammering away at Page is kind of like trying to terminate the pregnancy after you give birth.

Recently, 130 of the country's most notable economists signed a letter asking the Conservative government to stop attacking Page and provide him with the resources he needs to do the job he was hired to do. After Harper called Page's analysis "dumb," we can conclude this plea fell on deaf ears.

If Harper wins a majority in his next election, you can bet Page will be gone and the parliamentary budget office may be terminated altogether. On the other hand, abusing the mandarin you hired to give the public the unvarnished truth about government finances is not the kind of strategy that convinces voters you deserve a majority.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition July 20, 2009 A6