NHL free agent frenzy: 2009 High-stakes roll of dice

Daniel Brière, eight years, $52 million; Scott Gomez, 10 years, $51.5 million; Chris Drury, five years, $35.25 million; Brian Campbell, eight years, $56.8 million; Wade Redden, six years, $39 million; Markus Naslund, two years, $8 million...

It's like a bad dream, isn't it?

Oh, but it can get worse: Sean Avery, four years, $15.5 million; Ryan Smyth, five years, $31.5 million; Jason Blake, four years, $20 million; Michael Nylander, four years, $19.5 million.

Scared yet?

Two things. Don't know why it's called free agency because, brother, it ain't free. Second, for all the manufactured hyperbole surrounding the NHL's free agency "frenzy," which begins on Canada Day, the overwhelming evidence suggests you've got a better chance of finding an overrated, overpaid stiff you can't get rid of instead of the missing piece of the Stanley Cup puzzle.

Say what you want about Marian Hossa -- who became a poster boy for the mercenary when the sniper bolted Pittsburgh for Detroit last year and subsequently lost the Cup to his old teammates -- but at least Hossa sings for his supper. After all, Hossa scored 40 in the regular season last year.

Meanwhile, between them, Drury (22), Brière (11) and Gomez (16) scored 49 times, all for the paltry combined fee of about $22 million.

Campbell? The Blackhawks would love to have that one back (not Campbell, the deal). Redden scored three goals in 81 games and was a minus-5. Ryan Smyth is a 33-year-old who put up 59 points, but was minus-15. Michael Nylander was a healthy scratch during the Washington Capitals' spirited playoff run.

So, who wants to sign Marian Gaborik? Come on, he's only asking for about $8 million a year over a decade. Really, what could go wrong with locking up a Wildly talented, often-injured speed merchant who only played 17 games (and scored 13 goals) last season?

Well, turns out NHL general managers are fast learning that pretty much everything can go wrong (See: Avery, Sean). It's kind of perplexing, actually, how a Scott Gomez can go from a stud in New Jersey to a dud in New York. Same with Rangers teammate Drury, who was a model of consistency in Colorado and Buffalo.

There's still time for redemption, however. Brière, after all, has another six years to make amends. But that's the problem, too. It's already a gamble to overpay in free agency, but many GMs are doubling down on the term to sweeten deals. And perhaps that's a no-brainer when it comes to the likes of Alex Ovechkin (Washington), Mike Richards (Philadelphia) and Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin (Pittsburgh).

But what about, say, Pavol Demitra, who the Vancouver Canucks paid $8 million over two seasons to score 20 goals last year? And what was José Théodore doing at the end of the season in Washington for $9 million over two years? Sitting on the bench, watching rookie backup Simeon Varlamov. Pittsburgh paid Maroslav Satan $3.5 million to play much of the year in the AHL.

So, yeah, the Sedin twins want about $60 million each from the Vancouver Canucks for the next 12 years. Sounds like a fortune, right? But the Sedins are eerily consistent, rarely injured and a couple of choirboys who work tirelessly on every shift. And in these topsy-turvy salary cap times, quality and consistency will mean everything.

For example, would you rather have Gaborik and Alex Kovalev, both unrestricted and available, instead of the twins? Perhaps, but for the sizzle Gaborik and Kovalev have on the stoic Swedes, the former have their own problems; Gaborik is brittle and Kovalev indifferent.

Why do you think the Philadelphia Flyers gave up four first-round picks to Anaheim for Chris Pronger? Because they probably realized that the blueprint for an NHL team will be to have a core group of world-class players, split between forward and defence, decent goaltending and a carload of muckers. Hello, Pittsburgh Penguins.

But is there an unrestricted free agent, other than the twins, who's worth the risk for the reward? Martin Havlat had a renaissance season with the Chicago Blackhawks, but that's the first time the gifted forward has played even close to 81 games. Ever. (Why is it that so many players have career years entering free agency? Just askin'.) Mats Sundin, Joe Sakic and Saku Koivu, bless 'em, are old and subject to injury, Mike Cammalleri is streaky, Alex Tanguay is soft. Todd Bertuzzi is the Grim Reaper. Bill Guerin and Keith Tkachuk are older, less productive warhorses.

The list goes on. Almost every garage sale item has a ding.

Same goes for the defence. Is Mattias Ohlund injured yet? Has Rob Blake retired? Has Mathieu Schneider recovered from off-season surgery? How many games did Sergei Zubov miss last year (about half). No wonder a kid like Jay Bouwmeester, who's never played a single playoff game and is a career minus-27, can become a free agent belle. Because he's still young (25), skates with rocket boosters and has missed zero games in the last four years while putting up around 40-45 points a season on a very bad team.

Consistency, quality.

Besides, there is precious little room for error. That's why the Prongers of the world can fetch a premium. After all, when the cap starts to shrink, free agency is going to be less about who you can acquire and more about who you can keep. Philadelphia may have traded for Pronger, but someone, or two, will have to go. Don't buy any green bananas, Daniel Brière. That is, if the Flyers can trade you for a bag of pucks.

Yes, they're called free agents. Too often, they become expensive mistakes.

Now, who wants Martin Biron? Anyone?

randy.turner@freepress.mb.ca

Turner's take

Here's Randy Turner's short list of free agents. Of course, it all depends on the terms of a contract, but here's a list of unrestricted free agents we'd like:

Sedin twins: Daniel and Henrik. Sure, they want about $60 million over 12 years. But it's cap-friendly and would allow the Canucks some money to complement two of the NHL's most consistent forwards. Besides, what is Mike Gillis going to do with that $10 million he paid to Mats Sundin last year?

Marian Hossa: Detroit is probably smart enough to lock him up again, but chances are, whatever you pay Hossa, he's going to put up numbers, win or lose. That's not out of the realm of concern for any GM who wants to keep his job.

Bill Guerin: Proved useful with the high-flying Penguins and could probably be a good veteran who still earns his keep on more than reputation.

Mike Knuble: Averaged about 54 points a season with the Flyers over the last four years. Numbers are consistent, durability is not a concern. Only offering a two-year deal, max.

Rob Scuderi: A key defenceman in the Penguins' Stanley Cup run. With a paltry $700,000 salary last year, Scuderi will be looking for a bump. As long as it's not too much, we'd be interested.

Dwayne Roloson: Yes, he's old as dirt, but it wasn't long ago that Roloson got the Oilers to the Stanley Cup final before getting hurt. He's a gamer. The only problem: only a two-year deal.

On the market

List of unrestricted free agents, ranked by points:

FORWARDS

Mike Cammalleri, Calgary, 82 points

Daniel Sedin, Vancouver, 82

Henrik Sedin, Vancouver, 82

Martin Havlat, Chicago, 77

Marian Hossa, Detroit, 71

Alex Kovalev, Montreal, 65

Mark Recchi, Boston, 61

Brian Gionta, New Jersey, 60

Nik Antropov, New York, 59

Saku Koivu, Montreal, 50

Keith Tkachuk, St. Louis, 49

Bill Guerin, Pittsburgh, 48

Todd Bertuzzi, Calgary, 41

Alex Tanguay, Montreal, 41

Robert Lang, Montreal, 39

Micheal Samuelsson, Detroit, 40

DEFENCEMAN

Scott Neidermayer, Anaheim, 59

Rob Blake, San Jose, 45

Jarolsav Spacek, Buffalo, 45

Jay Bouwmeester, Florida, 42

Adrian Aucoin, Calgary, 34

Mathieu Schneider, Montreal, 32

Mattias Ohlund, Vancouver, 25

Jordan Leopold, Florida, 24

Steve Montador, Boston, 21

Derek Morris, New York, 20

Rob Scurderi, Pittsburgh, 16

Mike Komisarek, Montreal 11

Shane Hnidy, Boston, 11

GOALTENDERS

Martin Biron, Philadelphia, 29 wins

Dwayne Roloson, Edmonton, 28

Ty Conklin, Detroit, 25

Scott Clemmensen, New Jersey, 25

Nikolai Khabibulin, Chicago, 25

Manny Fernandez, Boston, 16

Antero Niittymaki, Philadelphia, 15

Andrew Rycroft, Colorado, 12

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition June 30, 2009 C4