About Samuel Segev:

Samuel Segev is the Winnipeg Free Press correspondent in the Middle East. He is based in Tel Aviv.

• Obama torn by conflicting allies

  TEL AVIV -- U.S. President Barack Obama has shown once again how difficult it is for him to navigate among four of his closest allies regarding Syria and Iran. Israel and Saudi Arabia are pushing for a harsher reaction to Iran's continuing drive to acquire nuclear capability. At the same time, they are urging harsher steps against Syria.

  View Full Column | 02/7/2012 1:00 AM | 0

• Time, it appears, is on Assad's side

  TEL AVIV -- Amid continuing bloodshed and brutal massacres, the Arab League has taken the Syrian file to the UN Security Council. Tabled by Morocco, and supported by the U.S., France and Britain, the Arab League is seeking regime change in Syria as the only way to stop the massacres there.

  View Full Column | 02/1/2012 1:00 AM | 0

• Peace treaty in peril

  TEL AVIV -- Egypt inaugurated on Monday its newly elected and Muslim-dominated parliament that will redefine the role of Islam in Egypt's Second Republic. The emergence of political Islam began in Tunis, when a liberal Muslim scholar won the Oct. 23, 2011, elections. It was followed in Morocco on Nov. 25 and Monday was Egypt's turn.

  View Full Column | 01/24/2012 1:00 AM | 0

• Israel seeks clarification of U.S. stance on Iran's 'capability'

  TEL AVIV -- A visit to Israel this week by the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey, should help clarify two issues: the nature of Israeli-U.S. resolve to stop Iran's nuclear program; and, what exactly the U.S. perceives that program to be. Questions about resolve were raised by an American-Israeli statement that an upcoming joint military exercise had been postponed to the second half of 2012.

  View Full Column | 01/17/2012 1:00 AM | 0

• Arab Spring deals Iran losing cards

  TEL AVIV -- Iran has emerged as the "big loser" of the Arab Spring. When Iran saw the fall of the pro-western regimes in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, it believed that its road to dominance in the Arab world was paved. But it soon discovered that the Arab masses were not eager to replace their autocratic and corrupt leaders with intolerant and more repressive Shiite Muslim leaders.

  View Full Column | 01/10/2012 1:00 AM | 0

• Jordan makes a move

  TEL AVIV — Amid much skepticism and with little expectations for a breakthrough, Israeli and Palestinian negotiators will meet today in Amman, Jordan, in an effort to resume negotiations. This is a personal victory for Jordan’s King Abdullah who succeeded where the United States, Europe, Russia and the United Nations failed. It is also a personal victory for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who insisted on direct negotiations with the Palestinians and refused to negotiate through international intermediaries.

  View Full Column | 01/3/2012 1:00 AM | 0

• Jordan makes a move

  TEL AVIV -- Amid much skepticism and with little expectations for a breakthrough, Israeli and Palestinian negotiators will meet today in Amman, Jordan, in an effort to resume negotiations. This is a personal victory for Jordan's King Abdullah who succeeded where the United States, Europe, Russia and the United Nations failed. It is also a personal victory for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who insisted on direct negotiations with the Palestinians and refused to negotiate through international intermediaries.

  View Full Column | 01/3/2012 1:00 AM | 0

• Israel appraises its options

  TEL AVIV -- The American military withdrawal from Iraq, and the perceived weakening of the American influence in the region, has forced the Israeli government to update its strategic estimate for the year 2012. Israel estimates that the current unrest in the Arab world will continue through 2012 -- with a special focus on Egypt, Iraq, Syria and Jordan.

  View Full Column | 12/21/2011 1:00 AM | 0

• Turkey thrown for loop

  TEL-AVIV -- Quietly and without any public admission, Turkey had reversed its Middle Eastern policies as defined in the 2010 Red Book. The 2010 Red Book, which is revised every five years, removed Syria and Iran from the list of countries that pose a threat to Turkish national interests. Instead, it stated that the region's instability stems from Israel's actions and policies and became the "bible" of the Justice and Development party, which started its "zero problems" policy with its Arab neighbours.

  View Full Column | 12/13/2011 1:00 AM | 0

• Cold War returns to Mideast

  TEL AVIV -- There are growing signs of a renewed Cold War between Russia and the United States over the future paths of Iran and Syria in the Middle East. For years, Iran has been pursuing both a nuclear program and the development of long-range missiles while building a heavy-water reactor for "research purposes" that is also capable of producing fuel for a plutonium bomb.

  View Full Column | 12/6/2011 1:00 AM | 0

• Democracy phase one in Egypt

  TEL AVIV -- Israel is following with great interest, but also with some concern, the first phase of the parliamentary elections in Egypt, the first since the ousting of Hosni Mubarak in February. The concern was underlined Sunday when the gas pipeline from Egypt through Sinai to Israel was sabotaged for the second time in three days and the ninth time since the beginning of the Arab Spring. The frequent disruption of the Egyptian gas to Israel is forcing the Netanyahu government to look for other gas sources to assure an uninterrupted supply to its expanding electrical industry.

  View Full Column | 11/29/2011 1:00 AM | 0

• Egypt's violence has repercussions

  After three days of increasingly violent demonstrations, Egypt's interim civilian government submitted its resignation to the country's ruling military council on Monday, bowing to the demands of the protesters and marking a crisis of legitimacy for the military-led government. The move followed the most sustained and bloodiest challenge to the military's hold on power since the fall of Hosni Mubarak as demonstrators clashed with security forces around Tahrir Square and across the country. Egyptian troops had been heralded as saviours when their generals ushered out Mubarak on Feb. 11, but on Sunday they led a new push to clear the square. The health ministry said Monday at least 23 people had been killed. Since Saturday, more than 1,500 people had been wounded, the ministry said.

  View Full Column | 11/22/2011 1:00 AM | 0

• Hands off Syria, Arabs tell Turks

  TEL AVIV -- The Arab League decision to suspend Syria's membership is one of the most important decisions since the beginning of the Arab Spring over a year ago. On the face of it, the Arab League decision affects Syria's domestic policies only. In reality, if the suspension grows into an expulsion, it could have regional ramifications as well. Arab foreign ministers are due to meet in Rabat Wednesday to discuss whether Syria's suspension becomes permanent.

  View Full Column | 11/15/2011 1:00 AM | 0

• Anti-Iran stratagem bungled

  TEL AVIV -- What was meant to be a co-ordinated campaign to pressure Iran in advance of an International Atomic Energy Agency's report on its secret nuclear activities this week embarrassingly has been derailed by Israeli sloppiness. The whole thing started late last month when Yukia Amano, the Japanese director of the IAEA, went to the White House to discuss Iranian progress in its efforts to build a nuclear bomb. Based on intelligence given to the international agency by the CIA, the Israeli Mossad and British intelligence agencies, IAEA's experts were able to conclude that, contrary to Iran's persistent denials, it was working on a nuclear weapon at a secret military base called Parchin.

  View Full Column | 11/8/2011 1:00 AM | 0

• Obama makes a bad decision

  TEL AVIV -- Since the beginning of the Arab Spring, there has never been such a succession of dramatic events in the Middle East as we have witnessed in the last few days. The end of Moammar Gadhafi in Libya, the first free democratic elections in Tunisia, the return of the kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit after more than five years of captivity, a new reform-oriented government in Jordan, and -- finally -- a decision by U.S. President Barack Obama that, by year's end, there will no longer be an American military presence in Iraq.

  View Full Column | 10/25/2011 1:00 AM | 0

• Lopsided prisoner swap vexes

  TEL AVIV -- Israel and the Palestinian organization Hamas will execute the first stage of a major prisoner swap today. Israel will release 477 Palestinian terrorists -- 27 of them women -- in return for the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, captive for five years The swap will take place on Egyptian soil, at the crossing into the Gaza Strip and in co-operation with the Red Cross.

  View Full Column | 10/18/2011 1:00 AM | 0

• Focus shifts to Lebanon

  TEL AVIV -- Lebanon's chief of general staff, Gen. Jean Kahwagi, began a five-day official visit to the U.S. on Monday despite constant domestic instability and possible government crisis in Lebanon. Kahwagi's visit, at the invitation of Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was postponed several times in the past. The ongoing uprising in Syria and its possible regional ramifications, however, made Kahwagi's visit essential. Discussions with the Lebanese army chief will focus on three main subjects:

  View Full Column | 10/12/2011 1:00 AM | 0

• Arabs spurn Ottoman overtures

  TEL AVIV -- With Sunday's publication of the Istanbul Declaration, the struggle between the Syrian opposition and President Bashar Assad's regime has entered a new and more determined stage. The Istanbul gathering established the National Opposition Council and it includes the largest number of opposition groups inside and outside Syria. The key paragraph in the Istanbul Declaration reads: "The National Opposition Council is the sole address for the Syrian revolution, both at home and abroad. It's aim is to bring down the existing Syrian oppressive regime, including the presidency, and establish a civil state, without national, religious, ethnic and gender discrimination. The council is open to all Syrians who identify with the aims and principles of this peaceful revolution."

  View Full Column | 10/4/2011 1:00 AM | 0

• Abbas gives Palestinians the edge

  TEL AVIV -- The Palestinian Authority has gained a slight edge over Israel as they enter the next stage of their diplomatic confrontation. After Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas ended his speech to the United Nations General Assembly Friday, it became clear the Arab Spring has transformed the Palestinians into a dynamic political factor.

  View Full Column | 09/27/2011 1:00 AM | 0

• Could this be the Year of Palestine?

  TEL AVIV — It could be said “The Year of Palestine” was launched in New York with the opening of the 66th UN General Assembly Monday.  Not only are the rotating presidents of the General Assembly and the Security Council Arabs, but the agenda is full of Arab topics.

  View Full Column | 09/20/2011 1:00 AM | 0

• Turkey, Israel seek allies in dispute

  TEL-AVIV -- The UN, the U.S. and European Union are pressuring Israel and Turkey to resolve their dispute over the legality of the naval blockade of the Gaza Strip. At the same time, both Turkey and Israel have taken steps that could deepen the crisis. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is flying to Cairo on Sept. 12 for talks with the new Egyptian military regime on strategic and economic co-operation. Erdogan has also announced his intention to visit the Gaza Strip "at a certain point." Egypt, however, has made it clear that Erdogan can't travel to Gaza during this trip.

  View Full Column | 09/7/2011 1:00 AM | 0

• Uneasy deals between Israel and Egypt in play

  TEL AVIV -- For the first time since the overthrow of Egypt's president, Hosni Mubarak, Israel is conducting a thorough strategic reassessment of its future relationship with Egypt. The reassessment began long before last week's bloody clash in the Negev, which claimed the lives of eight Israelis (three of them soldiers), 14 Palestinians and three Egyptians -- a young army officer and two policemen. It was prompted by the blowing up of the pipeline that supplied Egyptian gas to Israel and Jordan. It was precipitated by the realization that Sinai has become an advanced terrorist base, through which Iranian arms and instructors move freely to the Gaza Strip.

  View Full Column | 08/23/2011 1:00 AM | 0

• Israel is redrawing its map

  TEL AVIV — The month-old middle class “Tent Revolution” in Israel, has definitely shaken the foundations of the rightwing Likud-led government. At the same time, this protest movement has proven that it still lacks the power to bring about its downfall. Like any other protest movement, the ultimate success of the Israeli movement depends on the quality of its leadership and realistic goals. After last Saturday’s limited participation in the country-wide demonstrations, the ad hoc leaders of the movement reached the zenith of their success. On the one hand, they are proud of their ability to assemble the crowds. At the same time, they recognize the need to draft a practical ideology based on realistic goals.

  View Full Column | 08/16/2011 8:12 AM | 0

• Israel is redrawing its map

  TEL AVIV -- The month-old middle class "Tent Revolution" in Israel, has definitely shaken the foundations of the right-wing Likud-led government. At the same time, this protest movement has proven that it still lacks the power to bring about its downfall. Like any other protest movement, the ultimate success of the Israeli movement depends on the quality of its leadership and realistic goals. After last Saturday's limited participation in the country-wide demonstrations, the ad hoc leaders of the movement reached the zenith of their success. On the one hand, they are proud of their ability to assemble the crowds. At the same time, they recognize the need to draft a practical ideology based on realistic goals.

  View Full Column | 08/16/2011 1:00 AM | 0

• Iraqis stir pot in Syria

  TEL AVIV — While the United States, France and Germany pledged to take more severe measurestopunishSyrianPresidentBashar Assad for his cruel crackdown on his opponents, a new geo-strategic reality is quietly emerging in the Middle East.  Under strong Iranian pressure and without a public announcement, Iraq has reversed its attitude toward Syria and now supports Assad’s rejection of Turkish and western pressures. In a public speech on Saturday, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he had “lost patience” with Assad. He reminded the Syrian dictator of the fate of Saddam Hussein and of “a leader who was brought to court on stretchers and had to listen to his indictment while in bed and inside a steel box.”

  View Full Column | 08/9/2011 9:06 AM | 0

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