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Turnovers won't work for Saints on Sunday

Manning's stats show Colts win the big one

Posted: 02/4/2010 1:00 AM | Comments: 0 (including replies)

MIAMI -- Indianapolis Colts defensive line coach John Teerlinck was hunched uncomfortably on a convention centre chair, talking about his business when he stopped, sighed and remarked, "Lots of the game has changed in terms of technology, but in football today, as yesterday, the team that holds on to the ball and doesn't give it away wins."

That little aside, pushed out with no small amount of effort and grunting, is the key to this Sunday's Super Bowl between the Colts and New Orleans Saints.

And in distilling all the facts and numbers and trends down to this maxim, it's Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts who will win this game.

The Saints live by the takeaway. Their defence is as opportunistic as they come, as we saw in an NFC championship win over the Minnesota Vikings when they took the ball away five times.

The turnover sets up their offence and feeds their confidence. It's the gas that drives their engine and they were 9-0 in games this season when they had a plus in the turnover margin.

Manning, however, is the super-absorbent paper towel to the Saints' version of football spills. He sops up mistakes and prevents the damage they can incur.

The Saints were third in the NFL this season with a plus-11 turnover ratio built on 26 interceptions and 13 fumble recoveries. New Orleans features the active leader in career interceptions in Darren Sharper and his 63 picks. They look for the strip on every tackle and they have hawks in the secondary. But -- and this is the question that for us stops the Saints cold -- do you really expect Manning and the Colts offence to hand the ball over more than twice on Sunday? More than once, even?

We don't. We expect Manning to methodically move his men up and down the field and cash in for more than 30 points. The Saints, forced to attempt to thrive on their own and without the aid of crumbs provided by their opponent, will starve out and post feeble offensive numbers.

New Orleans struggled on offence against the Vikings and were lucky to walk away with a win despite their defence doing everything they could to give Drew Brees an edge.

Brees had a short field on a number of occasions and came up empty. Third-down conversions were hard to come by and when given the chance to snuff the Vikings, the Saints kept failing to put out the light.

Brett Favre short-circuited in the dying seconds of regulation and practically pushed the Saints into the Super Bowl with an inexplicable pick.

Don't expect similar charity from Manning.

This season, the Colts threw 19 picks and lost five fumbles for 24 giveaways. Manning was charged with 16 of those interceptions and his backups took the rest. In the post-season, the Colts have been very tidy with the ball, Manning has thrown one interception and they've lost just one fumble.

They throw the ball an awful lot -- 83 attempts in two post-season games so far and only one interception. Manning is efficient and careful with the ball. He rarely forces the issue and is a paragon of patience.

No quarterback in the game today is better at figuring out what a defence is doing and then finding a way to pick it apart. Manning is the maestro at his position right now, and with two weeks to prepare will have a decided edge come game time.

It's not just that he's smart and talented, but he's the hardest worker in the league when it comes to study. He'll know the Saints and their schemes inside out.

Brees will be close to par with Manning when it comes to prep, but they're in different leagues when it comes to football intellect. Manning is the football equivalent of Russell Crowe's mathematical genius in A Beautiful Mind, minus the schizophrenia. He sees things on the football field few others can detect, and he does it all in seconds.

The Saints have already put out the word that they want to pound Manning and get him out of the game. Smart strategy, because with him in the game, they don't stand a chance.

The Colts are favoured by five at this point and we're taking them straight up and against the spread.

gary.lawless@freepress.mb.ca

Gary Lawless, Winnipeg Free Press

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition February 4, 2010 C1

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