Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION

Centre of gravity shifts to Pacific

Defence Minister Peter MacKay was in Singapore earlier this week for the so-called Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual meeting where the region's security issues are discussed, but a good part of his time was spent in private negotiations for a possible Canadian military base on the island state.

Mr. MacKay said a staging base would make it easier to provide humanitarian relief in a region that is frequently hit by natural disasters and to ensure ships can safely navigate the pirate-infested sea lanes. These are fine goals, even for a military as thinly spread as Canada's, but the elephant in the room in Shangri-La was the rapid expansion of China's armed forces.

Mr. MacKay acknowledged Ottawa's search for a military hub was also motivated by the desire to support America's so-called pivot to the Pacific as a result of the region's "new power dynamics."

The word "pivot" is a euphemism for a fundamental shift in American military power from the Atlantic and other areas to the western Pacific. By 2020, 60 per cent of the U.S. fleet, including the majority of its aircraft carrier groups, will be stationed in the Pacific - a military buildup of historic proportions.

The U.S. says it doesn't want the buildup to be interpreted solely as a response to China's own military expansion, but there is no other way to interpret it.

The Americans are undoubtedly sincere when they claim they hope they can work jointly with the Chinese to secure prosperity for all, but they are also being realistic and prudent in beefing up their own muscle in the region.

China has several territorial claims in the area and has embarked on an aggressive spending program to acquire short- and medium-length ballistic missiles, anti-ship missiles, advanced aircraft, submarines, and other capabilities, including cyberweapons.

China, of course, says its aims are defensive, but a military buildup by one major power inevitably leads to a corresponding increase by another. The intent in this case is not to threaten China, but to ensure that no one in the region is intimidated and that disputes are settled peacefully and under international law.

Common security can be a basis for economic growth and prosperity, but those benefits are less certain if one power overwhelms the region militarily.

Canada is correct to seek a military presence in the region, both to support its principle ally and in recognition of the country's significant interests in the region.

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition June 6, 2012 A10

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