Military challenges rising

After four demanding years as chief of defence staff, Gen. Walter Natynczyk can leave with his head held high. The general was embroiled in a couple of controversies during his term, but they have not tarnished his image as a professional soldier with the highest ethical standards.

His use of a military jet for personal reasons was justified under the circumstances, while his role in the controversy over the cost of the F-35 fighter jet was misrepresented. Gen. Natynczyk was responsible for telling political leaders what equipment Canada needs, but the procurement process was somebody else's problem.

Like his immediate predecessors, generals Ray Henault and Rick Hillier, Gen. Natynczyk supervised the transformation of the Canadian military as it tried to juggle multiple tasks and threats, including the Afghan conflict, but also the rising challenges of failed states, popular revolts that required complex contingency plans, and the emerging threats of domestic terrorism and cyber warfare.

Lt.-Gen. Tom Lawson, the new chief of defence, will find the demands of the office will get even tougher, even as Canada prepares to withdraw its 950-strong training mission from Afghanistan early in 2014.

Rising instability in the Middle East, fuelled by civil war in Syria and Iran's quest for a nuclear bomb, combined with the challenges of Afghanistan and Iraq, confusion about the future of Egypt and Libya, will keep military planners working overtime for many years.

According to a 2009 report by the Canadian Forces Aerospace Warfare Centre, the military also needs to prepare for a vast array of threats to the homeland: "In 2014," the report says, outlining a possible threat scenario, "a Taliban sleeper cell manages to insert a particularly virulent contaminant in a water-filtration station in eastern Montreal. Before authorities are able to react to the attack, the effects are devastating: 846 people are killed and thousands more are violently ill... U.S. authorities close the border to all traffic for three days. The Montreal economy is devastated. Angry citizens demand the immediate resignation of the mayor. Tourism in all of Canada drops by 57 per cent. French-Canadians are united in calling for the government to immediately withdraw our troops from western Pakistan. The coalition government is defeated."

That's just one hypothetical scenario in a series of possible attacks in the 45-page report that offers a glimpse into the military mind.

It also warns the air force will face staff shortages because of a higher than usual number of retirements, and the difficulty in attracting new recruits in a competitive world. The threat from cyber warfare, of course, will grow at an exponential rate. The need for Arctic surveillance will also squeeze the military's limited abilities, and so on.

With so many demands and perceived threats, Gen. Lawson, an air force officer, may well wonder where to start. His best strategy is to speak the truth and say what he thinks without fear of recrimination or dismissal. That's the minimum Canadians expect of the person responsible for the country's safety.

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition August 28, 2012 A10